1/ Stories And Probability: A Thread
A story is a series of low probability events. This definition of stories is exemplified in 'The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy'. The driving element in the book is something called 'the improbability drive'.
A story is a series of low probability events. This definition of stories is exemplified in 'The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy'. The driving element in the book is something called 'the improbability drive'.
2/ The author is giving us a masterclass in storytelling by embedding the most important storytelling device in the story itself. Low probability events are the bedrock of all Douglas Adams stories quite clearly including the Dirk Gently series.
3/ Another good example of the phenomenon is Lemony Snicket's A Series Of Unfortunate Events. It's literally on the cover of the book. Unfortunate Events=Accidents=Low probability events. The lower the probability the better, which is what makes the climax satisfying.
4/ Let us say the probability of one unfortunate event is P(1), the second unfortunate event, P(2) and so on until P(n). The probability of the story P(S)=P(1)*P(2)*(...)*P(n) which is to say the entire story would be even more improbable than the individual improbable events.
5/ In other words, a good story is always 'unrealistic'. That is why we don't admit anecdotal evidence as useful evidence. A good anecdote is a recounting of a series of unusual experiences and totally useless in any kind of average calculation. Stories are only about outliers.
6/ Recall the old adage 'a story is ordinary people in extraordinary circumstances' or as Kurt Vonnegut said "Be a sadist. No matter how sweet and innocent your leading characters, make awful things happen to them—in order that the reader may see what they are made of."
7/ Imagine a CCTV footage from a supermarket. People come, they purchase things and they get out. Realistic. But no story. Suddenly an armed robber enters the frame. Low probability, doesn't happen too often but now it's a story.
8/ So, to make it realistic, make your characters relatable. As if the reader has met them in real life. You can give them professions, habits, speech patterns and motivations that resonate with readers or listeners. But the events have to be unusual.
9/ To demonstrate the relationship between stories and probabiliy, i wrote, you guessed it, a story. Find the story called 'Story' attached here and if you like it, follow @FlipFiction where @carolyncamoens and I write stories in 1 sitting (10-15 minutes). 
@threadreaderapp unroll please
