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David M. Herszenhorn @herszenhorn
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
To change #EU position (& get 27 countries to abandon unity/collective interest) #UK will have to endure econ shock of no-deal #Brexit. Then, weakened, engage in race to regulatory bottom & seek other ways to amp pressure on Brussels to force concessions. Seem workable to anyone?
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#Brexit: martedì potrebbe iniziare l'uscita di Uk senza accordo.

Tutti i governi Ue si stanno preparando con avvertimenti a cittadini, amministrazioni, imprese. Alcuni assumono migliaia di persone per le dogane.

Forse mi son perso qualcosa. Ma il governo italiano che fa?
Facciamo un esempio: in Italia risiedono 28.168 cittadini britannici.

Dopo la Brexit diventeranno extra-comunitari. Cosa ne facciamo in caso di no-deal? Tutti espulsi con foglio di via il 30 marzo?

Oppure li facciamo votare alle elezioni comunali come ora?
Un alto esempio banalotto: l'Italia esporta 760 milioni di euro di vino, di cui 300 milioni di prosecco.

In caso di no-deal servono doganieri per le pratiche di esportazione. E chi glielo dice ai trevigiani che devono prendersi un broker a Dover per sdoganare?
Read 10 tweets
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#brexit 33
Germany earned €2.9 billion from Greece’s debt crisis, their supposed equal members

@EURACTIV euractiv.com/section/econom…
#Brexit 34
Multinationals avoid the total cost2UK of Freedom of Movement & Freedom of Establishment is about £40 Bn/YEAR. The effect on UK public finances is 2drain the resources available 4 OUR pensions & benefits in the future. Get ready 2work until you drop!
globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…£30bn-cost-of-EU-migration-FINAL.pdf
Read 13 tweets
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More on the slow death of a dream. Telegraph #Brexit briefing is softening up the faithful for the inevitable permanent fudge, hinting at another five years in the customs union (and, necessarily, in the single market). This ‘interim period’ would, in practice, never end. 1/10
So the resolution of the Cabinet squabble over future customs arrangements is, “customs partnership and *then* #maxfac” so the government can do what it does best: avoid making the choice. 2/10
But UK and EU tariffs will not diverge in practice because of the preposterous tracking requirements this would trigger under the customs partnership. Fox can’t sign trade deals until this works, which it won’t - and no one will even try if it is merely an interim. 3/10
Read 11 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets

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