1/ In this thread, I will show by deductive reasoning that the @INSIDEEVS estimates of $TSLA Model 3 deliveries for July and August are almost certainly overstated by a material amount. 
2/ We begin with the claim: according to @INSIDEEVS, $TLSA delivered 14,250 Model 3s in July and 17,800 for August, or 32,050 quarter to date. Add another ~500 or so for Canada (estimate provided by @ElectronComm), for a grand total of ~32,500.
3/ As a general rule, at least before $TSLA existed, it is difficult to deliver a car that you have not yet produced. Also, it is very difficult to deliver a car that is produced in the final days of the month. For the purposes of this analysis, assume the following two axioms:
4/ Since late August, Fred Lambert has been leaking very detailed and consistent weekly Model 3 production numbers. The latest leak is linked below, and all the previous leaks can be linked through the latest article. $TSLA
electrek.co/2018/09/21/tes…
electrek.co/2018/09/21/tes…
5/ I have systematically summarized all the information in Fred's leaks in the attached figure. The red figures are based on Fred's sources, and the black figure of 4,000 for the week of August 19 is a reasonable estimate. $TSLA
6/ The final piece of the puzzle is what $TSLA reported as 'cars in transit'. Going into Q3, they claimed 11,166.
7/ So $TSLA had ~26k salable Model 3s produced by late August plus ~11k Model 3s in transit available for sale. So far so good for @INSIDEEVS, right? Not so fast. For their estimate to be true, $TSLA needs to have sold ~90% of those cars. Did they?
8/ As of late August, the SAF confirmed thousands of car rotting in a lot in Lathrop. The vast majority of these cars clearly weren't delivered by 8/31. H/T to @Paul91701736
9/ As of late August, the SAF confirmed more inventory both inside and around the Harlan structure, very near to Lathrop. The vast majority of these cars clearly weren't delivered by 8/31. H/T to @Paul91701736
10/ As of late August, the Shorty Ground Force (SGF) confirmed more than 2,000 $TSLA vehicles (mostly Model 3s) in Burbank. These cars clearly weren't delivered by 8/31. H/T to @Latrilife
11/ The SGF confirmed substantial inventory of $TSLA Model 3s in Chicago. These cars clearly weren't delivered by 8/31. H/T to @BlondesE
12/ The SGF confirmed substantial inventory of $TSLA Model 3s in Dallas in early September. These cars clearly weren't delivered by 8/31. H/T to @Chadilac82
13/ All over the country, there are thousands and thousands of confirmed $TSLA Model 3s sitting in inventory around the time that @INSIDEEVS claimed they were already delivered to customers. Both can't be true.
14/ Don't believe me? Ask Elon. Delivery hell that "should be resolved shorty" on September 16th means delivery hell "wasn't resolved in August." $TSLA was nowhere near delivering at a rate that supports the @INSIDEEVS estimate.
15/ Don't believe me? Ask @INSIDEEVS themselves! According to a leak/pump just this Friday, there are some 7,000 $TSLA Model 3s being prepared for delivery in the Bay Area alone! Thousands more elsewhere - even Model 3s for China!
16/ All weekend, we've seen reports of a massive $TSLA Model 3 delivery push. Call in the volunteers! Well, each and every single one of these cars is a produced-but-not-yet sold Model 3, is it not?
17/ So which is it, @INSIDEEVS? Do we believe your reporting on July and August $TSLA Model 3 deliveries, or do we believe your Friday reporting? And everything else shown in this thread? Because they both can't be right.
18/ I submit that the @INSIDEEVS estimate for $TSLA Model 3 deliveries for July and August is garbage. Prove me wrong.
19/ Finally, on September 5, Elon and two board members retweeted these garbage numbers, while the company was under a not-yet-disclosed criminal investigation by the DOJ. Just one of the many reasons why $TSLA will inevitably become $TSLAQ. <end>
