Thread by @soychicka

Please read and share this article - it* explains the trends and patterns in the extremely rare false accusations of sexual assault

*and the articles it references
qz.com/980766/the-tru…

Like half of the false 'accusations' aren't actually pursued by a reporting 'victim', but by someone else on their behalf - i.e. parents of a 'victim' who claimed the reason they became pregnant or missed curfew was because of a bad actor...

Like the majority of false accusations aren't reported against known individuals, but against unknown strangers or are aggravated assaults

Like those who falsely accuse others frequently have deeper psychological issues, often including childhood sexual assault...

And some use false accusations as a path to get mental health treatment.

Like the majority of true false accusations are made by those with chronic histories of mendacity and manipulative behaviour...

And that the only known 'woman scorned' who falsely reported a sexual assault through conviction in the US during the time range they consider?

That "woman scorned" was with her own problems, and did it at the behest of a man.

But for the 52 known cases of erroneous convictions in the US for rape since 1989, in almost 4M reported rapes/attempted rapes: that's 0.0013%.

And with the estimate that 25% of rapes are reported, 52/12M = 0.00043%

1 conviction from false accusations per 230,000 victims.

So I ask: who is more likely to be on the losing end of that equation?

The numbers are not on Kavanaugh's side.