Thread by @ChiefExecCCC

Lots of commentary this week about the request for @theCCCuk to look at the UK long-term targets.

Here's a thread with some reflections on our task – especially the discussion of whether we are ‘compromised’ in some way by the wording of the request (spoiler: we aren’t).

Here’s the request itself. I recommend reading it.

gov.uk/government/pub…

The request *does* say that Carbon Budgets three to five are “out of scope”. I’m not privy (rightly) to the reasons for that condition, but I think the statutory Carbon Budgets are a red herring at this stage.

I do not think @theCCCuk is constrained to look at the big issues.

Key point 1
The request is different (and potentially more important) to the normal cycle of advice we offer. We have been asked for advice on the appropriate UK long-term climate target. These moments don’t come along often - this is only the second time in over a decade.

The last time @theCCCuk received a request like this, we offered the advice that led to the current 80% target (prior to that, a 60% target had been mooted).

Our 2008 advice is a fascinating read, not least because of the assumptions behind it

theccc.org.uk/publication/le…

10 years on, this new request gives us some guidance on what we should consider.

The guidance is quite helpful – it’s certainly made us think here.

Another thing that's notable is that this is a joint request, co-signed by Ministers in Westminster, Scotland and Wales, and with the support of officials in Northern Ireland .

We are still thinking through how we will deliver this aspect of the request. More soon on that.

Key point 2
Budgets being "out of scope" does not mean that we can’t advise more ACTION in the near term. There is no barrier to over-achieving against the Carbon Budgets (except that they’re very stretching of course).

In fact, our advice in June this year *already* advises that the Government should overshoot Carbon Budgets.

See the dotted line.

We update assumptions all the time, and we already see a path to the 80% target that is beneath carbon budgets. This is exactly the job of @theCCCuk

Key point 3
We do not yet know Parliament's view on the long-term target. They will receive our advice on it, but there will need to be a subsequent Parliamentary process.

If and when Parliament changes the long-term target we can offer advice on carbon budgets accordingly.

Key point 4
We are not setting formal Carbon Budgets at the moment. Our next Carbon Budget advice is due end of 2020 (at the latest).

Remember, Carbon Budgets are a product of the long-term target itself. Long-term target set by Parliament; intermediate target-setting follows.

In summary, I think @theCCCuk have the space to look at what’s needed from the UK in light of the Paris Agreement – and the latest evidence from the IPCC and others.

We just need to do a good job of it...