Lots of commentary this week about the request for @theCCCuk to look at the UK long-term targets.
Here's a thread with some reflections on our task – especially the discussion of whether we are ‘compromised’ in some way by the wording of the request (spoiler: we aren’t).
Here's a thread with some reflections on our task – especially the discussion of whether we are ‘compromised’ in some way by the wording of the request (spoiler: we aren’t).
The request *does* say that Carbon Budgets three to five are “out of scope”. I’m not privy (rightly) to the reasons for that condition, but I think the statutory Carbon Budgets are a red herring at this stage.
I do not think @theCCCuk is constrained to look at the big issues.
I do not think @theCCCuk is constrained to look at the big issues.
Key point 1
The request is different (and potentially more important) to the normal cycle of advice we offer. We have been asked for advice on the appropriate UK long-term climate target. These moments don’t come along often - this is only the second time in over a decade.
The request is different (and potentially more important) to the normal cycle of advice we offer. We have been asked for advice on the appropriate UK long-term climate target. These moments don’t come along often - this is only the second time in over a decade.
The last time @theCCCuk received a request like this, we offered the advice that led to the current 80% target (prior to that, a 60% target had been mooted).
Our 2008 advice is a fascinating read, not least because of the assumptions behind it
theccc.org.uk/publication/le…
Our 2008 advice is a fascinating read, not least because of the assumptions behind it
theccc.org.uk/publication/le…
10 years on, this new request gives us some guidance on what we should consider.
The guidance is quite helpful – it’s certainly made us think here.
The guidance is quite helpful – it’s certainly made us think here.
Another thing that's notable is that this is a joint request, co-signed by Ministers in Westminster, Scotland and Wales, and with the support of officials in Northern Ireland .
We are still thinking through how we will deliver this aspect of the request. More soon on that.
We are still thinking through how we will deliver this aspect of the request. More soon on that.
Key point 2
Budgets being "out of scope" does not mean that we can’t advise more ACTION in the near term. There is no barrier to over-achieving against the Carbon Budgets (except that they’re very stretching of course).
Budgets being "out of scope" does not mean that we can’t advise more ACTION in the near term. There is no barrier to over-achieving against the Carbon Budgets (except that they’re very stretching of course).
In fact, our advice in June this year *already* advises that the Government should overshoot Carbon Budgets.
See the dotted line.
We update assumptions all the time, and we already see a path to the 80% target that is beneath carbon budgets. This is exactly the job of @theCCCuk
See the dotted line.
We update assumptions all the time, and we already see a path to the 80% target that is beneath carbon budgets. This is exactly the job of @theCCCuk
Key point 3
We do not yet know Parliament's view on the long-term target. They will receive our advice on it, but there will need to be a subsequent Parliamentary process.
If and when Parliament changes the long-term target we can offer advice on carbon budgets accordingly.
We do not yet know Parliament's view on the long-term target. They will receive our advice on it, but there will need to be a subsequent Parliamentary process.
If and when Parliament changes the long-term target we can offer advice on carbon budgets accordingly.
Key point 4
We are not setting formal Carbon Budgets at the moment. Our next Carbon Budget advice is due end of 2020 (at the latest).
Remember, Carbon Budgets are a product of the long-term target itself. Long-term target set by Parliament; intermediate target-setting follows.
We are not setting formal Carbon Budgets at the moment. Our next Carbon Budget advice is due end of 2020 (at the latest).
Remember, Carbon Budgets are a product of the long-term target itself. Long-term target set by Parliament; intermediate target-setting follows.
In summary, I think @theCCCuk have the space to look at what’s needed from the UK in light of the Paris Agreement – and the latest evidence from the IPCC and others.
We just need to do a good job of it...
We just need to do a good job of it...
