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Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
, 22 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
Rather heated debate with Ted Postol, who has now admitted his Khan Sheikhoun claims were total nonsense and is now claiming a 122mm rocket made a crater, not an explosive charge on the ground as he initially claimed, and was widely cited by war crimes denialists.
Effectively, he presented "super computer analysis" that showed his initial claims couldn't be true, and he decided it was now a 122mm DIY rocket that was responsible
He seemed very pissed off I called him out on that, and said it wasn't his fault people reported it as fact.
Here's Ted Postol's original reporting on the Khan Sheikhoun attack. He admitted today his initial analysis, quoted by numerous war crime denialists, was totally wrong.
Ted Postol also stated his new theory, that a 122mm rocket was used, is now being peer reviewed, so let's see how that goes.
As part of my presentation I included video footage showing the debris from Al Lataminah reconstructed by the team at @ForensicArchi, using images and measurements from OPCW reports.
The March 30th 2017 Al Lataminah Sarin attack is significant because filling caps with the same design and green paint as the one recovered from Khan Sheikhoun was recovered, one the OPCW described as being unique consistent with a Syrian Chemical bomb.
Based on debris and the reconstruction of debris by @ForensicArchi it was possible to match the measurements to a diagram of an M4000 chemical bomb published by the Russian MoD.
After reviewing their material showing the debris, including measurements, @ForensicArchi recreated the debris and the M4000 diagram as a model, and showed the debris fit perfectly over the bomb.
Postol also used the "hexamine doesn't dissolve enough in isopropanol" argument, not seeming to realise it's pretty much irrelevant in a binary munition that's mixed on the ground, like the Syrian M4000 chemical bomb.
Continuing from last night's thread, here's some more of the work we did trying to ID the Syrian Sarin bomb used in Khan Sheikhoun and Al Lataminah in 2017. This object was found in the Khan Sheikhoun crater, and proved essential in showing a link between the two attacks.
This cap, described as being uniquely consistent with a Syrian chemical bomb in the OPCW-UN JIM report, was recovered from the crater, photographed, and measured.
Using those photographs and measurements we recreated the cap as an accurately measured 3D model, for use in future comparisons.
A Human Rights Watch report noted similarities between it and filling caps used on Russian Khab 250 chemical bombs, so we decided to investigate that and see if it was a match.
Using measurements and photographs of the Khab 250 we were able to recreate the bomb as an accurately measured 3D model
We then compared the 3D model of the cap from Khan Sheikhoun to cap on the Khab 250 model. It didn't look the same, nor was it the same size.
This size difference was confirmed when someone went to the museum and measured the filling cap by hand, showing it was a different size, in line with what our 3D modelling showed.
Following the March 30th 2017 Sarin attack in Al-Lataminah debris was filmed and collected, including another filling cap, shown on the right side of this image.
In both size and design, this cap was identical to the one recovered from Khan Sheikhoun. The same dark green paint, also seen on other debris from both attacks, can be see on the outer side of the cap (left image)
In addition, a second filling cap, absolutely identical to the other two caps, was recovered from Khan Sheikhoun, attached to a piece of metal that still had a suspension lug attached. Also note the same dark green paint.
As I mentioned earlier in the thread, all the pieces were modelled by Forensic Architecture, and a diagram of an M4000 Sarin bomb was turned into a model, with all the measurements kept correct. The Al-Lataminah debris fit perfectly with the model.
So in Al-Lataminah we have the clear remains of an M4000 chemical bomb, including filling caps which the OPCW-UN JIM described as being uniquely consistent with a Syrian chemical bomb, which also turned up in Khan Sheikhoun, strongly indicating the M4000 bomb was used in both.
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