,
28 tweets,
12 min read
Read on Twitter
Where did it all go wrong for @markbspiegel? A deep dive on his Tesla history $TSLA $TSAQ
2013 - Mark is Short on Tesla early July.
He publishes 3 Seaking Alpha (SA) articles in the 2nd week of July
July- Claims Panamera E / BMW / Audi /Merc plugin will outcompete Model S
2013 - Mark is Short on Tesla early July.
He publishes 3 Seaking Alpha (SA) articles in the 2nd week of July
July- Claims Panamera E / BMW / Audi /Merc plugin will outcompete Model S
2013 cont
July - Claims $35,000 Model 3 will cost $59,500 to make.
July - Calculates Tesla share price (SP) best case to be $98 in 5 years.
(It was $129 at the time and $359.50 exctly 5 yrs later)
he calls the Tesla Q2 sales maxed (5150 MS sold) on twiter.
July - Claims $35,000 Model 3 will cost $59,500 to make.
July - Calculates Tesla share price (SP) best case to be $98 in 5 years.
(It was $129 at the time and $359.50 exctly 5 yrs later)
he calls the Tesla Q2 sales maxed (5150 MS sold) on twiter.
2014
Some objective points in 2013...less so from now..
6 Seaking Alpha articles in 2014
Feb - Accord Plug in and Audi A7 clean diesel will outcompete MS, Superchargers compared to Betamax, claims CHADEMO is easily upgradable to 120kW and CCS will start at 90Kw and go to 200kW
Some objective points in 2013...less so from now..
6 Seaking Alpha articles in 2014
Feb - Accord Plug in and Audi A7 clean diesel will outcompete MS, Superchargers compared to Betamax, claims CHADEMO is easily upgradable to 120kW and CCS will start at 90Kw and go to 200kW
2014 cont
Feb - Claims a $35,000 Model E will cost $47,007 to manufacture. (cusiously 20% and $12,500 less than he calculated 6 months ago!)
July - Claims the $5300 warranty reserve Tesla have set aside per car is 50-100% less than needed. Scare stories on drive trains
Feb - Claims a $35,000 Model E will cost $47,007 to manufacture. (cusiously 20% and $12,500 less than he calculated 6 months ago!)
July - Claims the $5300 warranty reserve Tesla have set aside per car is 50-100% less than needed. Scare stories on drive trains
2014 cont
Sept 17 - "Conclusion: even if Tesla were able to grow as quickly as Microsoft did in its prime (an absurd scenario for a non-monopolistic, non-software company) it would produce only 186,000 cars in 2020."
Sept 17 - "Conclusion: even if Tesla were able to grow as quickly as Microsoft did in its prime (an absurd scenario for a non-monopolistic, non-software company) it would produce only 186,000 cars in 2020."
2014 cont
Nov - A copy and paste of a consumer reports artical, with his own claims that demand has peaked and inventory building up (5,500 MS deliveries Q3).
Dec - Comparrison to how Porche handles Cost of Goods sold compared to Tesla, claims it artificially inflates Tesla GM
Nov - A copy and paste of a consumer reports artical, with his own claims that demand has peaked and inventory building up (5,500 MS deliveries Q3).
Dec - Comparrison to how Porche handles Cost of Goods sold compared to Tesla, claims it artificially inflates Tesla GM
2015
4 SA articles this year
April - Claims business model all wrong "The only way for Tesla to remain in business.........It could go exclusively "up-up-market" and settle for drastically reduced volume."
No Model 3 then??
4 SA articles this year
April - Claims business model all wrong "The only way for Tesla to remain in business.........It could go exclusively "up-up-market" and settle for drastically reduced volume."
No Model 3 then??
2015 cont
April - Claims global market for battery storage in 2019 will only be $1.5B and Tesla will be lucky to claim $500M of it and make $50M pa profit.
In reality last year Tesla Energy Gen and Storage had a revenue of $1.481B and $161M profit.....and its not even 2019 yet!
April - Claims global market for battery storage in 2019 will only be $1.5B and Tesla will be lucky to claim $500M of it and make $50M pa profit.
In reality last year Tesla Energy Gen and Storage had a revenue of $1.481B and $161M profit.....and its not even 2019 yet!
2015 cont
May - Claims unlessness of Tesla back up battery (different from PowerWall), caims that its because they cant sell enough cars and need to use the batteries elsewhere.
May - Claims a house would need to spend $54,000 on 15 power walls to meet average power draw needs
May - Claims unlessness of Tesla back up battery (different from PowerWall), caims that its because they cant sell enough cars and need to use the batteries elsewhere.
May - Claims a house would need to spend $54,000 on 15 power walls to meet average power draw needs
2016
2 SA articles
Nov - Elon "lying" about discounts,points to referal credit & COP cars
Nov - Claims $35k M3 manf' cost of $65k (up from 2013 and14 estimates!) before applying an "exceedingly generous" $10k cost fudge factor. Claims they wont sell and Tesla SP will plummet
2 SA articles
Nov - Elon "lying" about discounts,points to referal credit & COP cars
Nov - Claims $35k M3 manf' cost of $65k (up from 2013 and14 estimates!) before applying an "exceedingly generous" $10k cost fudge factor. Claims they wont sell and Tesla SP will plummet
2017
3 SA articles
May - SolarRoof-Claims it's tax fraud claiming a tax credit on the PowerWall part (complete lie). His calcuations are based on ripping off a brand new standard roof and the PowerWall needing 3 PowerWalls to last 30 years (despite it having a 10 yr warranty!)
3 SA articles
May - SolarRoof-Claims it's tax fraud claiming a tax credit on the PowerWall part (complete lie). His calcuations are based on ripping off a brand new standard roof and the PowerWall needing 3 PowerWalls to last 30 years (despite it having a 10 yr warranty!)
2017 cont
May - predicts 2018 MS/MX sales will be 85k max (on target for 100k). Agrees M3 build cost will be $41500 (what happened to your previous calculations between $47-65k?!) Predicts 2018 operating loss to be >$1Billion
May - predicts 2018 MS/MX sales will be 85k max (on target for 100k). Agrees M3 build cost will be $41500 (what happened to your previous calculations between $47-65k?!) Predicts 2018 operating loss to be >$1Billion
2017 cont
May - Complains how he 'thinks' Tesla accounts for referal bonuses in SGA and not in COGS.
It IS like a marketing expense, they rely on customers to do their marketing for them rather than buying advertisments. Ford dont lump a Super Bowl advert costs on their COGS!!!
May - Complains how he 'thinks' Tesla accounts for referal bonuses in SGA and not in COGS.
It IS like a marketing expense, they rely on customers to do their marketing for them rather than buying advertisments. Ford dont lump a Super Bowl advert costs on their COGS!!!
2018
Only 1 SA article
May -claims "massive competition begins arriving later this year" "Tesla has no moat of any kind" "possesses trailing technology in all facets of its business."
And a link to presentation the front cover looks like a 3yr old made
seekingalpha.com/article/417065…
Only 1 SA article
May -claims "massive competition begins arriving later this year" "Tesla has no moat of any kind" "possesses trailing technology in all facets of its business."
And a link to presentation the front cover looks like a 3yr old made
seekingalpha.com/article/417065…
19 SA articles..1 proved right (Tesla back up battery not successful)
I wonder how Stanphyl Capital is doing?...lets look...
Started May 2011, 10 investors investing the minimum
(Minimum investment $250k - dropped to $100k in 2012)
by 2018 21 people had invested $6.7M total
I wonder how Stanphyl Capital is doing?...lets look...
Started May 2011, 10 investors investing the minimum
(Minimum investment $250k - dropped to $100k in 2012)
by 2018 21 people had invested $6.7M total
Stanphly Capital (SC) cont
Fund was short in July 2013 while Tesla SP was $219
April 2016 investor letter "I increased our short position in what I believe to be the market’s biggest single- company stock bubble, Tesla April close: $240.76"
Fund was short in July 2013 while Tesla SP was $219
April 2016 investor letter "I increased our short position in what I believe to be the market’s biggest single- company stock bubble, Tesla April close: $240.76"
SC cont
March 2018 letter "I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble"
"I think it can implode at any moment"
"operating a Tesla Model 3 may potentially be as dangerous as texting while driving"
"I continue to waive the annual management fee"
March 2018 letter "I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble"
"I think it can implode at any moment"
"operating a Tesla Model 3 may potentially be as dangerous as texting while driving"
"I continue to waive the annual management fee"
2/18 con
"Tesla email in which the company laid out plans2create an artificially high Model 3 production rate undoubtedly at negative EBIT margin which the Model 3 will always have"
"pulling unneeded (due to weak demand, no doubt) workers off the MX and S lines to hand-build M3"
"Tesla email in which the company laid out plans2create an artificially high Model 3 production rate undoubtedly at negative EBIT margin which the Model 3 will always have"
"pulling unneeded (due to weak demand, no doubt) workers off the MX and S lines to hand-build M3"
2/18 cont
"2018 is likely to generate Tesla’s worst financial losses ever, 2019 will be even worse when Mercedes and Porsche also begin selling luxury EVs"
"2018 is likely to generate Tesla’s worst financial losses ever, 2019 will be even worse when Mercedes and Porsche also begin selling luxury EVs"
6/18 -
"absolutely massacred....primarily due 2 large short position in TSLA" "I added on each new piece of negative news"
"slashed our common stock short position to approximately 15% of the fund" "put approximately 12% of the fund.....into January 2020 put options"
"absolutely massacred....primarily due 2 large short position in TSLA" "I added on each new piece of negative news"
"slashed our common stock short position to approximately 15% of the fund" "put approximately 12% of the fund.....into January 2020 put options"
6/18 cont
"put another 0.30% of the fund into an array of near-term
(1-3 mo) put options" how did that work out?
"u in the fund have been extremely patient"
"absolutely abysmal performance over the past 1.5yr"
"I completely understand if any of u want out"
"put another 0.30% of the fund into an array of near-term
(1-3 mo) put options" how did that work out?
"u in the fund have been extremely patient"
"absolutely abysmal performance over the past 1.5yr"
"I completely understand if any of u want out"
6/18 cont
"fund is now down nearly 27%"
He has an obsession with 'research' done on twitter
"Twitter user @ElonBachman"
"user @eriz35"
"user @iSpyTSLA"
"@skabooshka sent up a drone"
uses Enron chart from @TeslaCharts
references twitter on reservation refunds
"fund is now down nearly 27%"
He has an obsession with 'research' done on twitter
"Twitter user @ElonBachman"
"user @eriz35"
"user @iSpyTSLA"
"@skabooshka sent up a drone"
uses Enron chart from @TeslaCharts
references twitter on reservation refunds
7/18 investor letter
"regardless of whether Tesla hits its 5k per week production goal (and Twitter user @skabooshka has gathered data indicating weekly Model 3 production under 4000), the car will be a financial disaster...EBIT break-even cost...to be in the mid-$50k at best"
"regardless of whether Tesla hits its 5k per week production goal (and Twitter user @skabooshka has gathered data indicating weekly Model 3 production under 4000), the car will be a financial disaster...EBIT break-even cost...to be in the mid-$50k at best"
7/18 cont
"the only other times he’d seen anything like it was during the waning days of Enron and Valeant. Congratulations, Tesla: you’re a company in great company!"
"the only other times he’d seen anything like it was during the waning days of Enron and Valeant. Congratulations, Tesla: you’re a company in great company!"
2013 - 52 tweets
14 circa 400
15 circa 1400
16 circa 2000
17 circa >2100
Much of his investor letters are done referencing twitter sources. @markbspiegel dont make one mistake become a career defining one! Join the Bear departure list! Collect your managment fees again!
14 circa 400
15 circa 1400
16 circa 2000
17 circa >2100
Much of his investor letters are done referencing twitter sources. @markbspiegel dont make one mistake become a career defining one! Join the Bear departure list! Collect your managment fees again!
Oh 100% of these tweets are directed at Tesla. Some will have slipped through, e.g. if he mentioned ‘Elon’ and not ‘Tesla’ they won’t be counted.
Correction: - Tesla share price was $129 in July 2013
