This is NOT a stock market prediction -- my track record there ain't too good. But I would point out that recent market action -- the big swoops up and down based on not much -- reminds me of 2000, on the eve of the technology bust 1/
What happened then was that investors began losing confidence in the consensus that had underpinned valuations -- the "average expectation of average expectation", in Keynes's words. Every uptick or downtick seemed to lead to a revision of basic views 2/
And now we see it again. So there is a possibility -- but only a possibility -- of a big decline, not for some clear reason, but because the story line that has supported stocks for some reason isn't as persuasive as it was 3/
