Thread by @pmdfoster

So where are we on Brexit? And the dreaded Irish backstop.

Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

The first thing is often in Brexit the sound of silence is the sound of deals being done.

And there is now signs of movement from the October impasse on the backstop, which I allude to this morning. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

The Buzzfeed Europe Ed @AlbertoNardelli has more detail - but the key point is that Barnier appears to have offered the UK the possibility to write the all UK customs backstop into the exit treaty. /3

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…

This is a potentially big step - long resisted by the Commission and, my sources say, still resisted by some member states (France, as usual, but others) who see risks in putting customs arrangements in the Withdrawal Agreement.

But.../4

If the UK gets a standalone customs text in the exit treaty, then Mrs May can guarantee that her promise to leave Northern Ireland in the customs territory of a foreign power will be kept.

Now that doesn't solve all her problems, but it's a key issue solved. /5

Of course, it still leaves NI in the single market regulatory envelope, but the UK has basically already agreed to this, and to de-dramatised regulator checks.

We know the DUP hates this - and a source in Belfast dismisses it as a 'rehash of something we've already rejected'./6

But let's see when the time comes. If May can guarantee territorial/customs integrity of the UK, and checks across Irish Sea that are greater in scale, but not scope (this might be tough, but could get close) then she might be close to a deal. /7

But what about the Brexiteers? Recall this is only the backstop - so it only kicks if the future trading relationship can't deliver on promise to avoid hard border in NI.

It only exists "unless and until" that happens...and Brexiteers can be promised it might. In time. /8

Recall the June 7 tech paper, that aspired to end of 2021. That tallied with the proposed one-year extension of the transition period that emerged last week, but go shot to pieces (and seems to have been dropped now by UK side). Why not keep to those aspirations? /9

The short answer is that no-one would believe them.

A 'temporary' customs union that only falls away when a unicorn comes into view, doesn't feel all that temporary.

Hence the Brexiteer calls for an 'exit' clause, an "ejector seat" /10

That might be possible, even if unilaterally on the UK's part, but at that point the EU will want their NI-specific 'backstop to the backstop' to make sure that whatever happens there is no return to a hard border.

Which takes us back to the old problem. /11

But if May accepts a form of "unless and until" then could she plausibly argue that the EU should drop it's NI-only backstop?

This is where you start to hear interesting discussions on the EU side, about the nature of the backstop. /12

Ultimately it's an insurance policy, but as one source puts it, that doesn't mean it has to necessarily be 'tsunami proof'.

Because think about it for a second. Would the UK really just quit a Customs Union without an alternative in place? /13

And if it did so, would it ever apply Mr Barnier's backstop?

Imagine we heading toward end of 2020. No deal in sight. Backstop due to kick in.

Will the UK govt have stood up the computers and customs offices to make it work? Seems unlikely to me. And plenty of others. /14

So that's when you hear member states from Central and northern trading parts wondering why this entire deal is being rendered impossible over something that will never be implemented anyway?

Because let's be honest here the Irish issue was never soluble. /15

Just read the December Joint Report. It's a tangle of contradictions that testifies to that fact.

Still, even if including a Customs Union arrangement in the Exit Treaty solves the backstop, it doesn't address the wider issue of leaving the UK in an open-ended Customs Union./16

But then that's been the elephant in the room for a long while now.

May has been lining up the dominoes steadily, while clinging to the conceit that the future relationship can deliver independent trade policy and an invisible border.

Even though no-one seems to know how. /17

But if she topples all the dominoes at the right time (soonish, but maybe not quite yet) then it's always been the case that committed Brexiteers will struggle to advocate for a disorderly Brexit.

"It's a shit-sandwich," says one MP. "But one Parliament probably swallows" /18

I don't know for sure if Barnier can deliver customs in the WA, but plenty of member states want it - and accept British logic that if its legally possible to put a backstop in Article 50, then why not a customs arrangement.

It's an interesting move.

May's turn next.

ENDS