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Devil's Advocate IN @jaganmsna
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A genuine question : Last few weeks , retail prices of petrol and Diesel have dropped noticeably. So will all those who were bearish on listed auto majors in India get bullish ? Will those sell calls be revised ?
@jaganmsna Some perspective here : In last 30 years, retail prices of petrol and Diesel have gone up 10x in India +. Same time today's leading listed auto majors have grown much more in revenues and much much more in profits + have expanded overseas ! - 2
@jaganmsna And many of them have graduated from being CKD Assembler to becoming end to end players with in house technology and innovation. To think that auto stocks need to correct on a fuel price inflation has no basis whatsoever IMO.
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A simple sample to understand Value Investing !! 👇👇
So, here it goes . Year 2000, a fancied stock in fancied sector vs a government company in a little liked sector . Next 7 years, who outperformed ? That is contrariness explained ! - 2
Roll over to 2018. We have the same Bharat Electronics in some Commodity /Utility/Capital Goods/Auto/Financial sector businesses.
We have same Visual Soft in several "Quality" Consumption businesses.
So what happens to both sides, in the next 7 years ?
You decide !!
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A PE of huge size invested in an Indian stock (during bull run) and that made many small investors invest. The stock has now collapsed. Now where is the fault : PE fund or the small investor ? Think.
(Thread continues)
The Name is not relevant , be it OE fund or the stock. The PE fund is headquartered abroad and has 100 billion $ AUM. This investment would be not even 0.01 % of their AUM !
Now consider our LIC. AUM of over 400 billion USD and 70% of it in debt (to Guvts). Now they invest some 2 billion $ in IDBI bank to help owner (Guvt) do investors go and buy IDBI bank next day ? No, we condemn LIC !
Why not same for PE funds and their India bets ?
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Some data on Copper usage in an EV in this tweet !
Looks to me that biggest deterrent to EVs capturing market share may be availablity of reasonably priced Copper !!
Having said this : I believe that once EV demand market for Copper becomes established, a lot of Copper usage in other demand markets (power transmission lines etc) will switch to Aluminum. This is already happening but will be on bigger scale.
Net Net, EV will lead to large demand increase on some commodities - Copper, Aluminum (for making lighter vehicles to reduce payload), Lithium.
Lot of plays over there. Huge cost swings on this inputs will make adoption not as easy as people imagine to be !
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Our Analysis - in Thread (!) Form:

The Trump admin tried to hold onto a GOP House by spending the last 3 weeks trying make the caravan and their hardline immigration policies the centerpiece of their midterm election strategy - but tonight, the American public rejected this...
...Why? Bc they view the last 2 years of this Admin’s immigration policies as prioritizing DACA repeal & family separation and last few weeks as politically motivated. This strategy failed, with the House flipping, fueled by a massive rejection of these policies in the suburbs...
...“Moreover, tonight was a HUGE rebuke for the leaders of the hardline, anti-immigrant movement, with their champions losing badly. These ideologues have promised for more than two decades that they would win elections if they finally adopted their restrictionist policies...
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Last week made 19 years that I survived my suicide attempt. At the hospital I found out that I had been within five minutes of losing my life. Now it makes sense that these last two weeks have been a bit trying for me. I didn't realize I was coming up on that anniversary
I am in a much better place than I was back then but I still struggle. What I realized over the last few weeks is the tools that I have used to cope all these years have been to suppress my issues rather than to deal with them. I realized there is no shame in asking for help.
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(1) Here's a multimedia thread about the Kavanaugh hearing on 9/27/18. The body language of our opponents is so obvious it takes no professional skill to read it.

Photos and videos that support my opinion follow.

#ConfirmKavanaugh #ProsecuteFeinstein #RuleOfLaw #BillOfRights
(2) After preparing the photos I will add to this thread, I noticed this video that was published today. "Bombard" is an outstanding body language analyst & has done several videos re the Kavanaugh confirmation process.

A must watch:

bombardsbodylanguage.com/2018/09/30/bod…
(3) This is also a must watch. I had already formed the same view of Ford's testimony before I saw this video. Ford is a faker and tried to use a "little girl" voice & body language to MANIPULATE us all.

I DO NOT tolerate manipulators. Female, or male.

bitchute.com/video/5uv6SHt1…
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
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003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
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Last night, the SEC rejected an ETF proposal. It wasn’t the CBOE-backed proposal that has gotten people hyped, but a Winklevoss-Gemini proposal. Still, there are some interesting takeaways for understanding the potential for other on-deck ETF proposals. Quick summary: /1
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I keep thinking back to a discussion a few months on reddit about THE BELGARIAD. Several comments were made about it being cliche and pedestrian, and someone said, “Yeah, it’s a fine story, but it’s never going to be a classic.”
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