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Signor Ernesto @SignorErnesto
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
This is labour productivity(GDP per hour worked), year on year % variations, in G7 countries:

I have some questions for Prof. @AshokaMody :=)

First question: Prof. Ashoka Mody can you identify Italy between these curves? (no, you can't is my answer)

nb: mean dashed.
1/
I can help you :=) this is Italy stand alone.

The "degrowth rate"...(black humour..) brokes his fall with austerity measures.

Second question: why?

nb: reference line in 2011

2/
Let's remove the noise.

You wrote "Euro Tragedy"

Third question: for whom?

3/
pause

:=)

In your book "Euro Tragedy" i find interesting this comparative graph. I don't want to spend time debating about crises similarities... but... 1/
nothing.... never mind..

Welcome to Italy Prof. @AshokaMody

:=)

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Ho deciso di fare un regalo ai miei amici Prof. che credo sarà utile nei dibattiti in tv che CERTAMENTE li vedranno impegnati nel 2019 (vero @corradoformigli?).

Chiudiamo definitivamente la questione "la produttività cala con l'euro cit: @AlbertoBagnai"

1\
Ho preso i dati dal dopoguerra (1950), dal Piano Marshall che ha spinto i nostri investimenti trasformandoci da economia rurale a industriale)

Ho estratto il tasso di crescita e ho fatto la media a 21anni (ovvero i valori esprimono anno dopo anno la MEDIA 2\
dei tassi di crescita rilevati nei 21 anni PRECEDENTI). Ovvero, ho diviso il set di dati per 3 onde evitare qualsiasi forma di overfitting o data snooping come dicono quelli bravi...(arriviamo al 2014).

Questo è quanto e la questione "euro" è chiusa. Ma sul serio.

Saluti :=)
Read 5 tweets
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Oramai correggere la gang di carciofari che imperversa su Twitter è divenuto un lavoro a tempo pieno.

Oggi, domenica, alle 7 del mattino, in attesa che mio figlio si desti, ci occupiamo di @Schuldensuehner . Questo Signor Holger allega un grafico dove vengono mostrate 1\
le probabilità di default di Italia e Francia basate sui Credit Default Swap (il costo del premio assicurativo per tutelarsi dal fallimento) con orizzonte 5 anni.
Problema: mette le curve su assi diversi; quella italiana, in verde, mostra i valori a SINISTRA del grafico, 2\
quella francese, in giallo ocra, espone i valori a DESTRA nel grafico. Usando questa modalità di visualizzazione si ANNULLANO LE DISTANZE annullando la diversa percezione che il mercato esprime verso i due paesi. Chi retwitta il ns. Sig. Holger?

3\
Read 8 tweets
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Leggevo questo agglomerato di stronzate di tal "giuslit" retwittato prontamente dal Senatore @AlbertoBagnai.

Commentarlo , anche dopo aver assunto antiemetici, è piuttosto complicato.

Ne prendo due punti..oltre è difficile andare senza vomitare sullo schermo
1/
Il nostro paese ha approvato aiuti alle banche nel periodo 2008-2012 per circa 130MILIARDI. Di questi 130MILIARDI quelli effettivamente utilizzati sono stati circa 15MILIARDI. La Germania ne ha autorizzati 646(MILIARDI) e ne ha effettivamente erogati 259(MILIARDI) circa 2/
(come vedete le cifre sono diverse). Il motivo di questa discrepanza è banale quanto serio. NON E' VERO, come si disse all'epoca, che il ns. sistema bancario fosse più sano ma, semplicemente..NON POTEVAMO PERMETTERCI DI FARE DI PIU' causa IL NOSTRO DEBITO PUBBLICO... 3/
Read 15 tweets

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#GDPbkser 1/n Whenever the GDP base is updated for a fast growing economy, the weights on fast growing sub-sectors increase & on slow growing sub-sectors decrease. The new series therefore shows lower growth rt than old in yrs prior to new base & raises it for yrs post new base.2
#GDPbkser (2/n): If memory serves, historically avg GDP gr rt in yrs btwn old & new base yr has been adjusted down by an avg of -0.5% to -0.75%! The current revision is ~2x the historical avg! Thus reweighting would have lowered past GDP gr rt from 8% to 7% to 7.5%! ...3/
#GDPbkser (3/n) So what needs greater analysis is the rest of decrease in GDP growth rate ie the reduction not explained by re-weighting (~-0.65% ). Some points made by critics are either only partially valid or invalid. (a)Comparing chng in nominal gr with chng in real gr...4/
Read 9 tweets
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Day 4 afternoon session of Bates v Post Office Common Issues trial in court 26 of the Rolls Building has begun. With legal argument. This will be a thread throughout the rest of the afternoon. #postofficetrial
Judge warns Mr Abdulla about the civil evidence act which entitles him to refuse to answer a question if he thinks it exposes him to criminal action. It’s re his WS and the interview with the PO after his suspension.#postofficetrial
… in which he was interviewed under suspicion of misuse of public funds and false accounting.
Naushad Abdulla (NA) says he understands his right not to answer if he chooses.
#postofficetrial
Read 111 tweets
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Um, actually this is a bad take. I know something about these issues, and saying that America is "richer" doesn't get at what's really going on. Yes, we have higher GDP per capita. But you need to ask why 1/
Consider Denmark. Danish GDP per capita is 16 percent lower than US GDP per capita. But what lies behind that difference? It turns out that Danish productivity, measured by GDP per hour worked, is essentially identical to US productivity 2/
And the percentage of Danes employed is also basically the same as the percentage here 3/
Read 5 tweets
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Thread: On the US-China Trade War (Plus More)

1. First, here is a reminder of which countries have the largest GDP in 2017 (the EU is sort of a globalist-minded entry, in my opinion):
2. We have in the past discussed the Chinese threat and their plans for world domination in a dozen or more threads, including their strategy of leveraging debt to obtain direct Chinese control of overseas assets from debtor nations (e.g., ports, mines and railways).
3. We have also discussed their economic weaknesses that are vulnerable to economic leverage, including their export economy and the financial and real estate sectors, as well as @POTUS ‘s continuing use of selected (and threatened) tariffs to rebalance US trade with China.
Read 44 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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"Rahul acknowledges that China is the competition" — How cute!
Truth is, the real reason why India so desperately lags behind China is your family.
I'm sure people like you aren't used to facts because you're fed a load of crap, but still...here are some exposing the family.
🔹When India was ahead of China in terms of real GDP per capita (real GDP is one that's adjusted for inflation/deflation) —
* During 1970-1980, India's was $658 while China's was $402 (64% more).
* During 1980-1990, India's was $922 whereas China's was $698 (still 32% more).
🔹Today —
* China's nominal GDP is 4.9 times India's.
* China's GDP on PPP basis is 2.44 times India's.
* China's nominal GDP/capita is 4.64 times India's.
* China's GDP on PPP/capita is 2.31 times India's.
Read 15 tweets

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