1. Despite 24/7 coverage of "whatsgonnahappen??" leading up to the midterms, media never explained to viewers the basics of the midterms. So some dems are (irrationally) pouting did not win senate, while some GOP are proclaiming victory. This election was devastating to GOP...
2...let's start with the most important numbers: 26 and 9. These are the key to the BS claims of "victory" by GOP, and why every smart politico ahead to the election was saying probability of dems winning senate was as close to zero as possible. Dems defending 26 seats, GOP 9...
3...that meant that, to flip the senate, the dems had to win 28 races. To keep the senate, the GOP only needed to win 8. Moreover, the election map was, according to 538, the most unfavorable for any party in history of US elections. This is why the term "thread the needle"....
4...kept coming up in describing path to victory. To win senate, dems would have to win 26 seats they already held, then flip two republican seats in red states to dem. Possible - that is why so much hope was placed on Beto. But still very unlikely. Unfortunately, every time I...
5...or others tried to explain the reality of the numbers, dems with more hope than facts would often proclaim that the senate would flip, as if it was some sort of super-house where everyone was up for reelection. In the end, it appears the dems won 23 seats, the GOP won 12....
6...that's right. The dems won almost twice the number of seats as the GOP, but did not take control. That shows how bad the numbers were this year. So, you have to look at the numbers every decent analyst was waiting for: total and spread. And those are horrible for GOP...
7...the totals are this: 45 million people voted for dems in the senate, 33 million voted for GOP. That's right - in the closest (but sloppy) proxy for a national election, dems won 12 million more votes than GOP. The spread is also terrible for the GOP. In Texas, the spread....
8...was 2%. In deep red texas, a progressive lost to a deep red conservative by 2%, or 200,000 votes. That, while a GOP victory, shows a sea change happening in TX. In Arizona - friggin' Arizona - the Republican is only projected to win, because vote is so close - 0.9% spread...
9...even look at the big flip: Florida spread was 0.4%, with GOP governor against the Senator. Both with huge public name. In Mississippi - yes, Mississippi - the Republican has only 0.6% lead (about 5,000 votes.) So, yes, GOPrs won mostly by small margins in red states...
10...to call this skin-of-the-teeth victory a major win is as ignorant as the dems who thought senate was going to be some sort of easy takeover. If this had been the only thing that happened, the story could be spun as "surprisingly close, but a victory for the GOP." But...
11...this was not only thing that happened. The House: It's almost incomprehensible that, at a time of economic strength , the GOP did this badly. JP Morgan has already concluded that this is the worst House retention in American history by any president in good economic times...
12...something big is happening, something far larger than voting on policy. The reason good economic times usually means fewer wins for the opposing party is obvious. But for it to result in MORE potentially signals a danger for a GOP wedded to Trumpism. If Trumpism does....
13...this badly in strong economy, imagine what is going to happen when, as inevitably always happens, the economy turns down. The GOP needs to expand its reach, not target it on a shrinking demographic. But Trumpism does the opposite. Then, the even worse sign..governors....
14...governorships do not take up all the same oxygen as national elections, largely because most folks do not understand the magnitude of their signal as a direction of the country. There is no 51-49 competition like in the senate. To explain....
15...imagine if the dems had won 23 governorships and GOP had won 12. Those were the results in the senate, which Trump et al are presenting as a victory. But that is ONLY about majority retention. On actual wins, no. But governorships are just individual races, one on one....
16...making it more interesting, 7 democratic incumbents did not face reelection, and 7 GOP incumbents also did not. In this, democrats made 7 pickups against republican incumbents. The total votes were pretty equal, so what about the spread? In Florida, it was 0.7%, coming off..
17...of a Republican governor. So, with a bit more, that would have been flip number 8. Georgia was 1.7% (with GOP doing everything but shooting democrats at the polls to stop them from voting). And even GOP stars went down: Scott Walker, prez candidate of 2016, is out...
18...the lessons here are immensely important. First, KNOW THE DETAILS. Spinning hopeful stories based on how many lawn signs you see or the outcome you want is as useful as wishing for unicorns. Numbers dictate all. Numbers are immutable. 26 and 9. If reality is too...
19...difficult for you to face - in this case, that dems taking the senate was an uphill and improbable battle - then go fishing until the elections, come back to vote. Wishes and dreams do not win elections. Second, if you depend on spin to declare victory, you lost.....
20...and most important: STOP PROTEST VOTING or refusing to vote to make some "point." The big "protest vote" elections were 2000, 2010, 2016. (2010 because liberals were upset that Obama didn't magically force the senate to approve single payer.) Notice what all of those have...
21...in common: They were important democratic losses. The democrats are STILL digging out of the hole caused by the 2010 "protest" - which is what turned state legislatures all over to GOP, which in turn launched voter restrictions - because....
22...a bunch of narcissists were so pure they couldn't vote, smugly preening about their purity. The Parkland kids - the ones who now encourage folks to vote - are trying to get out of office some of the very people swept in in 2010 - when those kids were 10. No single election..
23...changes the world. You do not say "I want to be at a store a mile away" and suddenly you are there. It is gradual, step by step. When any party experiences heavy losses, it takes years to recover. And when you want government to be a certain way, you have to vote for those..
24...who most closely align to your beliefs, showing \ you will show up to the polls and that your opinion should be considered. Protest voters dont vote, and then are amazed that their opinions arent driving decisions. Stop damaging process toward whatever you believe and vote.
