1/ How will crypto affect my industry? 
2/ For blockchain to have impact on a specific market, there are two important factors:
3/ 1. Customers are concerned about privacy and censorship risk. This is the most clear cut blockchain use case and for the near future, the one where it will get the most use.
4/ This is the case with money and why Bitcoin is around.
5/ 2. Platform operators must be enjoying large, uncompetitive rents (capturing more value then they create). Industries where incumbents or state actors are restricting innovation seem like the most likely options.
6/ This the argument for "Open Finance"
7/ This means that many industries will NOT be affected by blockchain in the near term as very few satisfy both these conditions.
8/ Money seems the most compelling because for a certain group of individuals, there is a strong belief in privacy and censorship resistance for their money.
9/ This "free money" group also feel that the once President Nixon fully removed the U.S. from the gold standard, that central banks around the world are (or will) devalue fiat monies, thus extracting large rents.
10/ Financial services is also a potential early industry facing disruption because there is concern around privacy and financial services companies seem to be pretty rent seeking. (though it remains to be seen to what extent on both accounts).
11/ In this framework, the case for web 3.0 is fairly week. The internet aggregators like Facebook, Amazon and Google all seem to be extracting relatively few rents and the vast majority of their customers don’t show much concern for privacy or censorship risk
12/ I'm deeply skeptical we'll see a blockchain enabled Uber or Facebook-type system in the next 10 years (though pretty optimistic we will in the next 50)
13/ Most of the internet aggregators don’t strongly satisfy the conditions above. There is an argument they are rent-seeking, but it doesn’t seem so severe that it would cause the network effects they’ve built to be overcome.
14/ A business selling cat furniture on Amazon would certainly prefer to pay less of a percentage of their revenue to Amazon, but the exposure to a huge market that Amazon provides is worth what they are paying and less than traditional retail.
15/ It also doesn’t seem that internet users care too much about privacy at this point. Despite the information about data breaches on Facebook and other social networks, there has been very little impact on real usage.
16/ Where would you plot your industry/company?
17/ As always, this is just me thinking out loud. Feedback welcome.
