Thread by @Usherwood

It's Monday lunchtime, so let's consider what we know right now on Art.50:

1/

We know there's life in the tunnel, with long, long talks deep into last night

2/

We also know that those talks didn't produce a resolution of differences

3/

That suggests two things:
- there's willingness to try and find an agt;
- the barriers are very high

4/

Given the noises in recent weeks, we might assume that the issue rests on the UK's need to have text that let's it make a case to Parliament/CON that the backstop isn't realistically going to come into effect and that UK won't get stuck in limbo

5/

However, this has been gone over more than enough times for it to be clear that isn't possible: the backstop's there precisely because it might realistically be needed

6/

If this means they can't move to Nov summit, then we enter the last-chance saloon of a Dec deal, with rising pressure to activate no-deal activity (due to lack of time if nothing else)

7/

What's not clear is whether more time is of any use to the process.

Either one side compromises on position, or basic preferences change, or the mythical intern pops up with a creative solution

8/

compromise looks v.unlikely, given how much both sides are dug in: backstop's too hot to fudge away through a simple concession

9/

mythical interns are, well, mythical: if someone's not thought of the proverbial cunning plan by now, then they're not going to in the next fortnight

10/

and the basic change in preferences also looks unlikely, although the emerging common ground between hard brexiters and remainers/2nd-voters might possibly open up a new option in UK domestic politics

11/

however, hard to see how that cmn ground can really shape things now: really only going to get tested in HoC vote, ie once a deal is signed for ratification.

v.unlikely it can produce a basic shift in gvt policy now, esp as gvt might still fancy taking its chances

12/

All of which points to the 'game of chicken' play: run the clock right down, present a last-minute text, then dare anyone to follow through on threats to vote it down, having worked hard to minimise their scope to make other options happen

13/

That makes me extremely nervous, given how problematically things have gone so far, and it leaves absolutely no scope for picking up the pieces, should piece-picking-up be needed

14/

(which is, of course, the point of the gambit: "do you want that on your conscience?")

15/

Put differently, playing chicken relies on a high level of confidence in everyone's willingness to stick/split: get that wrong and it all goes wrong.

Right now, I'm not sure anyone can feel that confident about all those involved

16/

Plus, this is mainly a UK internal thing: it still doesn't resolve how the negotiators get past their current problem of no agreed text

17/

tl;dr something's gotta give if this is to happen. But it's not clear what.