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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Feel the need for an explanation of the Withdrawal Agreement, but fear that whatever the ERG will put out will be unreliable? Did you know the government put out its own explanation? gov.uk/government/pub…
And here‘s the EU factsheet europa.eu/rapid/press-re…
And the EU Northern Ireland Q&A europa.eu/rapid/press-re…
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This has impressively strange statements from all three speakers. So some simple facts (thread)
1) No unilateral extension of Art. 50. Extension requires all Member States and the UK to agree. That’s Art. 50(3) of the TEU
2) The other two speakers speculated about what it would take for other member states to agree. Yes, a game changer. But that’s certainly not a new government with a new negotiation plan from scratch. “We don’t like it, let’s start over” is not a likely option.
Read 4 tweets
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I do not have the time for a full analysis - but allow me to point out some obvious shortcomings. As one of the authors can and does claim particular WTO expertise, I will not be as forgiving as I am with people who have no prior experience. (Thread)
The document claims to give us 30 truths about leaving on WTO terms. Allow me to link it again here for your convenience: globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…
Let’s start easy: the introduction suggests that the backstop can be replaced by a full FTA. Easy. Tusk is willing to do it. This is wrong. 1) we cannot negotiate a full future relationship in 3 months 2) remember the sequencing we agreed to?
Read 34 tweets
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My new explanation of this is, if you want, a version of path-dependency. Let me explain (short thread)
I had an aha moment at a recent conference, where a very experienced politician said that the current deadlock could only be resolved by a referendum or a general election.
What I found surprising was the mention of a general election. When the audience pointed out that both major parties have the same problem that they are split by Brexit, he conceded rapidly that a GE does not hold out the prospect of help.
Read 6 tweets

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Good news: “UK exports of goods to Canada have increased by 13.7% to £6.15 billion in the last 12 months since a new free trade agreement was introduced.”

Bad news: we’ll lose that trade deal, along with all our other ones, in a no deal Brexit scenario. gov.uk/government/new…
Good news: “The EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) will create the world’s largest free trade area, eliminating over 97% of export duties.”

Bad news: we’ll lose that trade deal, along with all our other ones, in a no deal Brexit scenario.
gov.uk/government/new…
And here’s the latest reminder (19 December) that all our trade deals will go away under the no deal Brexit scenario...
gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 4 tweets
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It's going to be a massive day in parliament. Your amuse-bouche, in which govt might be found in contempt of parliament, is kicking off now parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/83…
Starmer: "It's no longer for the govt to judge. It is for parliament, which is a higher authority."
Near silence in Chamber while Starmer is speaking.
Read 215 tweets
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Thread. A quick bit of political theory for non-specialists that might help in understanding Brexit & the Withdrawal Agreement.

Positive and Negative Freedom.

Inspired by (& cribbed from) this great article from before the 2016 Ref by @philosgreek 1/
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
As Isaiah Berlin most prominently pointed out in ‘Two Concepts of Liberty’, there are two types of freedom (or liberty, but I’ll use freedom):

Negative: freedom from being constrained by others
Positive: freedom to do what you want
2/
They are quite different. Nobody is actively stopping me from becoming a massively renowned guitarist, so I can try to become one, but I don’t have the freedom to actually become one unless others agree.
3/
Read 21 tweets
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Few thoughts on the #ERG proposals for the Irish border, an issue @awstojanovic and I wrote about back in June: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/i…

The paper stresses that the ERG support the principle of no hard border, which will be welcome to all sides

(1)
Also says that customs checks won't be a problem - which is true if the Govt can swing the Facilitated Customs Arrangement, which both the EU and the ERG have problems with...

(2)
The paper points to an EU report, Smart Borders 2.0, as providing solutions to the customs questions. However, that report a) doesn't solve the problem and b) isn't an EU report (it was commissioned by the Parliament, it doesn't represent an EU proposal)

(3)
Read 7 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Nadine, I think it's very important that politicians with large twitter followings impart accurate information and do not mislead their followers.. So lets examine you what you said:

So let's look at the tariff for ROASTED coffee imported from poor countries.
Let's look at the very poorest countries. The UN list of 47 poorest countries (Least Developed Nations) are all eligible for EU's Everything But Arms (EBA) schedule, that means zero tariffs on everything but guns. That's all countries on this map. Botswana (green) have opted out.
But let's look specifically at coffee producers in Africa.

The top 10 coffee producing nations in Africa are Ethiopia, Uganda, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Tanzania, Cameroon, Madagascar, Gabon, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c…
Read 65 tweets

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