Leavers say "How on earth can Brexit be affecting the economy if we've got solid economic growth and low unemployment?"
Easy: it's like the old joke about a frog trying to escape a well by climbing a ladder... 2 rungs up, 1 rung down.
Easy: it's like the old joke about a frog trying to escape a well by climbing a ladder... 2 rungs up, 1 rung down.
If economic growth brings 50 new jobs and Brexit takes 30 jobs away, the UK gains net 20 jobs.
Without Brexit taking those 30 jobs away, the UK would have gained net 50 jobs. A much, much better situation.
Similarly for GDP. Our economy is still growing, but we went from being
Without Brexit taking those 30 jobs away, the UK would have gained net 50 jobs. A much, much better situation.
Similarly for GDP. Our economy is still growing, but we went from being
the fastest growing economy before the referendum to one of the joint slowest in the EU (along with Italy).
We have had one surprising quarterly "blip" of growth recently but that's because companies are stockpiling so much stuff in preparation for Brexit that all the warehouses
We have had one surprising quarterly "blip" of growth recently but that's because companies are stockpiling so much stuff in preparation for Brexit that all the warehouses
in the UK are pretty much full to bursting. All those "extra" sales show up in the GDP figures, even though nothing has got as far as the end consumer... it's all just sitting on shelves in warehouses.
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
So make no mistake about it. Despite the unemployment figures, despite the fact our GDP is still scraping out gains, Brexit's hurting the UK already. Jobs are going, investment drying up. Companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. See thread:
(NOTE: The examples in the above thread can't be dismissed as "Project Fear" because they're things that have already happened or are happening now. It would be like disputing last week's football results.)
Coming back to the frog in the well... If we didn't have Brexit, it would be able to leap out 2 rungs at a time and be on its way in a jiffy.
Instead, it's a long, slow slog. And just wait until Brexit proper happens, and the ladder goes away! Sadly, we ain't seen nothing yet.
Instead, it's a long, slow slog. And just wait until Brexit proper happens, and the ladder goes away! Sadly, we ain't seen nothing yet.
