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Dave's Brexit Politics @brexit_politics
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If the EU is so great at trade negotiations for the UK, why is our trade so low as a % of GDP?

UK 30.5%, EU average 45%, German 47%.
data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.E…

I ask this question a lot & no one gives a good answer or one which argues remaining in the EU makes sense long-term!
Not only do we have the lowest % of exports in the EU (UK is 30.5%) we also had the lowest % growth in exports from 1960 (where data is available) to 2017!

UK grew from 20.2% to 30.5% roughly a 50% increase.
EU average grew from 19.4% to 44.6% over a 100% increase.

Why?
Seems clear though the EU as a whole has done well in terms of increasing exports the UK hasn't done anywhere near as well. EU membership hasn't worked out as well for us as it has for say Germany.

NOT blaming the EU, it is how it is. The EU SM/CU + FTAs doesn't work for the UK!
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@aev1609 @threadreaderapp @johnehonwheeler @Jim_Cornelius @_HenryBolton Oh & the original Tweet in this thread is accurate. Post #Brexit we can reduce our WTO tariffs if we want.

What we can't do is 'force' our trade partners to reduce their WTO tariffs on our exports to them unless we have an FTA with them.
#BrexitFacts >
@aev1609 @threadreaderapp @johnehonwheeler @Jim_Cornelius @_HenryBolton >Could mean imports into the UK get cheaper, but we lose some exports, because though WTO tariffs have gone down a LOT since we joined the EEC/EU they are still higher than FTA tariffs (majority zero rated).

So we could get cheaper imports, but it probably costs us exports.>
@aev1609 @threadreaderapp @johnehonwheeler @Jim_Cornelius @_HenryBolton >What will likely happen is the UK gov keeps the majority of our WTO tariffs close to EU WTO tariffs & uses those as leverage for new FTAs & rolling over current TAs etc.

Basically if we dropped all our WTO tariffs to zero why the hell would any country want an FTA with us?>
Read 4 tweets

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ON @PeterObi PETER OBI’s USE OF ECONOMIC DATA AT THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE: BETWEEN FACTS AND FICTION

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Avec un salaire net de 2 400 € par mois, vous faites partie du 1% les mieux payés à l’échelle mondiale.
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Always nice to see a great mind such as @paulkrugman thinking about Brazil's macro problems, but he gets a lot of things wrong in his most recent article (nytimes.com/2018/11/09/opi…)
First, Brazil's dependence on commodities is largely a myth. Brazil's commodity exports as a share of GDP is lower than Mexico's and not much higher than Turkey's -- and nobody claims these countries are commodity-dependant.
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🚨 - EFT Headline assumption about GDP Growth from Trade Liberalization offers as support wild misreading of Australian example.

The EFT say their modelling shows 2-4% growth from liberalization and this is consistent with Australia's 30 year experience.

1/
2/ Minor issue there guys, in 1986 (30 odd years ago) Australia's applied, weighted mean tariff rate of 7%-18.96%.

Under the EU's Schedule, the the UK has a trade weighted average tariff of 1.96-3%.

Source 1: data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.T…
Source 2: data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.T…
3/ For Australia, which has never exactly been a manufacturing powerhouse in most sectors, reducing what were sky high tariffs on near everything generated a lot of benefits.

To suggest the UK could see similar results, even fully liberalizing is insane. There's far less to cut!
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The Economic history of India is one that evokes strong reactions

It is a topic on which the reactions of both the Right and Left are at odds with the mainstream view of economists

Let's study the principal reactions, and in the process survey the Economic history of India!
So here are 3 views -

1. Mainstream : India was a subsistence economy for much of its history until it started growing in the past 3-4 decades

(Contd...)
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3. Nationalist view (Left): Mughal India was a Sone ki Chidiya which was badly impoverished by colonial era free trade, and has recovered since independence
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Thread (not for the fainthearted Brexiteers)
I'll let you in on a little secret my Brexiteer friends. Although my English is better than most Leave voters, (I know when to use their, they're and there), I am Dutch and studied Economics at the University of Rotterdam. Have an MBA.
2/ Exports represent about 83% of the Dutch Economy and this number, incredibly while in the EU, is still rising.

The comparable percentage for UK exports is 33% of GDP and going down these last few years. It peaked around 2013 in fact.
Us Dutch know which side of our bread is buttered. This is why we keep our EU customers happy. You heard of Parma Ham? Actually bred and fattened in Holland, only smoked in Italy after a short ride in a Dutch truck. Dolmio spaghetti sauce? Made in Holland. Marmite? Say no more!
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