Thread by @PlugInFUD

ELMER TERMINAL ANALYSIS:

Why @InsideEVs's guesstimate (soon to be picked up by mainstream media as fact) of Tesla's November deliveries is likely in no way correct.

*thread alert*

$tsla $tslaq 1/

IN TOTAL:

@InsideEVs claims 24,600 Teslas were delivered in November.

This compares to:

Edmunds: 18,644 (6,000 cars / 32% difference)

Automotive news: 21,700 (3,000 cars / 15% difference)

(sources for those:

https://twitter.com/PlugInFUD/status/1069738539800252416

)

$tsla $tslaq 2/

For reference, @InsideEVs's does not appear to have any secret sauce. They use VIN numbers, info gleaned from the internet, and of course emails from @elonmusk.

So lets think about WHY insideSTD's number seems absurd.

https://twitter.com/TeslaCharts/status/1070072447486124032

$tsla $tslaq 3/

Per InsideHPV, 24,600 total Teslas delivered in November were comprised of:

3,200 Model X
2,750 Model S
(5,950 total S/X)
18,650 Model 3s.

First, S&X:

$tsla $tslaq 4/

I view 5,950 S&X as being even more suspect than the Model 3 number. It represents:

- the best non-quarter-end month ever
- 650 cars (more than 10%) better than Jun-18 (EoQ month)
- nearly 100% growth over Nov-17 (3,200 sold).

All this despite some headwinds...

$tsla $tslaq 5/

- model 3 cannibalization - one would think some S/X current owners would be trying the newest flavor of Tesla. Perhaps that's not the case.
- S/X sales were down bigly in November in Europe (ex Netherlands).
- No major incentives offered.

$tsla $tslaq 6/

I think *THIS* is actually the number that Tesla / @InsideEVs wants the street to focus on. S/X are high ASP, high margin.

If a wall street analyst now says "omg, i was too low by 3,000 S/X" - that adds $300 million in revenue and $75m income to his Q4 model.

$tsla $tslaq 7/

Now, onto the 18,650 Model 3s.

Firstly, lets pretend its just coincidence that that number matches the cells used in the S/X. We all know that @elonmusk doesnt enjoy trolling the world with recurring numbers. (420, 250, etc.)

$tsla $tslaq 8/

18,650 Model 3s = 4,350 per week. This approximates how many Model 3s Tesla can currently make per week per best info.

But at the same time, there appear to be inventory builds starting in Fremont, Denver, Bellevue, Arizona, etc... so that already doesnt add up.

$tsla $tslaq 9/

...perhaps @elonmusk is betting Tesla can get to 7,000 Model 3's a week produced now-ish, deplenish every car in the country, and have another Fremont Flea Market sale to beat September. But otherwise I just don't see how Nov and Dec can both be great months.

$tsla $tslaq 10/

Got sidetracked there. So, 18,650 sold. 4,350 per week. Does that make sense? (3 tweet answer)

- @Latrilife reports that Marina Del Ray, a huge SoCal facility, was flat from Oct.

https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1070073245217386496

- Fremont deliveries shut down for ~10+ days mid-month.

11a/

$tsla $tslaq

11b/

@DeanSheikh1 and others report that NY appeared to have a good month, but it's hard to really conclude much there (and NY state is not a huge Tesla market to begin with).

$tsla $tslaq

11c/

My creepin' on TMC and other forums indicate that LEMUR deliveries didn't ramp til the end of the month (and moreso ramping in Dec).

LR was all but gone (filling special orders from inventory)

P/AWD perhaps steady from prior months, but backlog nearly gone.

$tsla $tslaq

and returning to InsidePeeFleas methdology (VINs) - there's a huge gap in them. From 125k-130k things are patchy and 130-150 there's nothing. (LEMURs start at 150k).

So of course extrapolating sales based on this could lead to fake news.

h/t @GrainSurgeon

$tsla $tslaq 12/

So for the official

ELMER TERMINAL NOV-18 TESLA SALES ESTIMATE

My money says Edmunds number is the most realistic, and I'd guesstimate the breakdown as follows:

18,600 Turdslas
4,000 S/X
14,600 3's (3,400/wk)

$tsla $tslaq 13/

Of course, this is simply Elmer screaming into the void. Of course, $tsla shares will pop tomorrow as the 24,600 # gets picked up. Of course, maybe there really are that many Silicon Valley Bros in CA buying Teslas.

$tsla $tslaq 14/x

...but inshallah, this is just one more chapter in @elonmusk's Big Exponentially Ramping Book of Lies that was concocted to keep the share price high (namely, at/above $360) as we wait for the final implosion to come.

$tsla $tslaq

Elmer out

p.s. shoutout all of the SGF/SAF/shorty internet force that allows easy sourcing of the above (more substance than InsidePCP works off of).

Please feel free to add/revise/substantiate/dispute any of the above. $tslaq goal is always the truth.

$tsla

addendum to tweet #5 (S&X sales beat)

https://twitter.com/PlugInFUD/status/1070088459115814913

Perhaps tesla is still selling off loaners/lease returns in bulk to enterprise or others. that could make this number more possible.

but we'll never really know whether or not that's the case.