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Katy Hayward @hayward_katy
, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
5 slides on the #Brexit #Backstop for Northern Ireland/Ireland from @DPhinnemore and me.

1. Why there will be a Backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement.
Plus a synopsis of the EU and UK positions on the matter.

(Thread 1/6)
2. What is already agreed (green), agreed in principle (yellow), and not agreed (white) in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland in the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement.
ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
2/6
3. What has been offered in writing from the UK government on this Backstop (Protocol).
Ref. the Technical Note on Temporary Customs Arrangements published today.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3/6
4. If implemented, what could the EU's ‘backstop’ for NI/IRL (as per the draft Protocol) mean for trade and regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland (NI) and the rest of the UK?

4/6
5. If there is a backstop specifically for NI, how ‘hard’ could the Irish sea border become, according to various scenarios for the future UK/EU relationship?

5/6
6. Full slides to be available from @QPol qpol.qub.ac.uk
It's primarily an effort to explain the #Backstop in its current form & to contemplate implications of its implementation.

It's a work in progress. @DPhinnemore & I will publish a revised version as necessary!
6/6
The link to the slides online! Thanks @QPolAtQueens
qpol.qub.ac.uk/uk-withdrawal-…
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More from @hayward_katy see all

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Today UK govt published its unilateral 'commitments to Northern Ireland & its integral place in the UK'.
I'd read it not just as an effort to get unionists on board #WithdrawalAgmt but a nod towards post-Brexit governance.
Here’s an ‘essentials’ guide..
1/
 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
It comes on the 2nd anniversary of the collapse of the NI Executive.
I really hope that isn’t a coincidence.
& if it isn't, it's a pointed reminder to those who claim to be concerned abt the representation of NI that they cd put more effort into getting Stormont up & running.
2/
The DUP came out quickly to reject it, underwhelmed & unconvinced.
Others will be too, but we cdn’t expect detail or substance on commitments at this stage.
(Besides, perhaps it's a duty of politicians in NI to bring forward proposals re: enhancing representation of NI..?)
3/
Read 12 tweets
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‘A Better Deal’?
bit.ly/2PCZh5S

If you are looking for a workable alternative to the Protocol on NI/IRL in the #WithdrawalAgreement, & if you are worried about @BorderIrish & @BelfastAgmt, I'm afraid this isn't it.

Here's a thread that is as tight as possible.
1/
First, don’t be fooled by the legalise & jargon.

It cannot be a serious legal text if it assumes that parties can simply “agree not to place physical infrastructure or introduce related checks and controls on the Irish border in any circumstances” (as per para 2).

2/
It is not in the gift of these parties to make such a guarantee without proper consideration of consequences for their international trade partners + responsibilities to their own consumers.

What this proposes in terms of 'Irish border measures' doesn't cut it (more anon.).
3/
Read 20 tweets
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Here we go: Very initial impressions of the #WithdrawalAgreement's Protocol on NI/IRL #backstop, drawing heavily on UK Explainer of the same. tinyurl.com/ydfrvcdc 1/8
First, some general points I think are worth noting, mainly about how the UK is trying to frame it & what has changed in the Preamble to the #Protocol.
2/8
To the #backstop, which is now about avoiding north/south AND east/west barriers... at least at face value.
UK keen to emphasise its temporary nature & unlikely implementation.
Initial decision on whether it comes into force will have to be made by 1 July 2020 & by the UK.
3/8
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Is the big #brexit climbdown beginning?

Are the Brexiteers about to decide to 'buy into' the idea that Mrs May can fix the Irish border with technology? That unicorns *do* exist?

Mad? Let me explain... 1/Thread
First @tnewtondunn reports Brexiteers like Iain Duncan Smith and co are 'biting' on a No 10 briefing that "special arrangements" could fix the Irish border - ie 'technology'



Then FT's Laura Hughes says 'Gang of Five' are too /2

@tnewtondunn Wow. Amazing....suddenly, after all these months of negotiating it seems like Number 10 has put it's hand down the back of the sofa and found a 'fix' for the border issue that has bedevilled these talks for all this time.

I love this quote particularly... /3
Read 24 tweets
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The #Brexit tunnellers are tunnelling in pursuit of that elusive crock of gold - a deal.

What are they trying to finesse? How are they trying to close a deal? Here's what I know after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
As we all know, "it's the backstop, stupid" that is the problem.

But more specifically, how long the backstop lasts, and whether the UK can ever leave it.

This is the crux of the matter. /2
Last week was a big step forward, with the EU tentatively agreeing to write an all-UK customs arrangement *into* the Withdrawal Agreement.

So not a promise to do this in the future, but an operable text that requires no subsequent additions to function. /3
Read 16 tweets
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Right. I'm ready to call it! The UK government is aiming for the #Brexit negotiations to lead to:

- A Norway deal
- A 'Norway' v '#Remain' referendum.

I'll show my working below!

#stopbrexit #peoplesvote
Why Norway?

Well, the answer to that lies on the island of #Ireland. Due to the GFA, there are not many ways of squaring the circle of having the hard border that is required by the WTO, Northern Ireland remaining in the UK and the UK being outside the customs union.
So the options faced by HMG are:

1 - call a border poll and let Northern Ireland and the Republic reunite as a single entity. While the Conservatives are nominally the Conservative & Unionist Party, there are many who would not share a tear at the loss of NI....
Read 12 tweets
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The Chequers plan is dying. May faces rebellion on both sides. She can survive, but not proceed. So what happens next? Some thoughts after chats with both sides.

(Shorter: it's still all about the Irish backstop)

1/Thread
As talks get under way in Brussels today, the EU can:

a) attack - eviscerate Chequers for cherry picking

b) parry - play for time, probe UK real red lines

c) focus on what is deliverable to conclude Withdrawal Agreement in Autumn /2

More here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It is the last of these where smart money lies. Chequers is dying anyway and is a 'future relationship issue'.

The focus is delivering a divorce treaty by 29.03.19 and for this most of work is done.

Except the backstop.... /3
Read 18 tweets
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UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets

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