Thread by @msbellows

Thread: Mueller recommended zero jail time for Flynn, but years in jail for Cohen, even though both have provided "substantial cooperation." That difference partly is due to diffs in the sentencing guidelines for their respective crimes -- BUT it also may contain a clue. 1/

There are two ways a prosecutor can reward a defendant for cooperation. The first is prior to sentencing, via a "5K 1.1 motion." That's what Mueller did with Flynn. That's for when the prosecutor already has extracted everything he expects to get from the cooperator. 2/

But that doesn't work when the prosecutor needs the witness to CONTINUE cooperating after sentencing, because once the defendant has received a relatively low sentence, the prosecutor loses leverage. He can't have the sentence INCREASED for failure to keep cooperating. 3/

When a prosecutor believes further cooperation will be needed later, she may choose to let a cooperating witness receive a substantial sentence, but offer the witness what's called a Rule 35 motion, in which the prosecutor LATER asks that an existing sentence be shortened. 4/

This preserves the prosecutor's leverage over the witness to ensure future cooperation, and may be why Mueller didn't give Cohen the same friendly treatment he did Flynn: he believes he's extracted what he needs from Flynn, but expects to need further cooperation from Cohen. 5/

Q: What info does Cohen have that Flynn does not, that Mueller would consider valuable?

A: Cohen, unlike Flynn, has strong personal relationships/long history with Trump's family (Kushner, Ivanka, and Don Jr.) -- three key players Mueller hasn't yet interviewed or indicted. 6/

This is just an educated guess, but my theory is that Mueller may need to ensure Cohen is available as a resource when he finally makes his end-game moves against Trump's family, to rebut whatever defenses/explanations they deploy to justify their actions. 7/

This might explain why Flynn will walk, while Cohen may sit in jail desperate to reduce his sentence by cooperating more.

If I'm right, it could mean the REAL fireworks -- Mueller closing in on, and trying to flip, Trump's daughter, son, + son-in-law -- aren't too far off. 8/

Again, this is just (educated) guesswork -- and I'm very aware that "the wish is father to the thought." But I'm going to move a small percentage of my investment portfolio into popcorn futures, just in case I'm right. 9/9

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