Where does the Westminster political parlour game being played out last week and this lead us? Why most of the options being discussed are dead-ends, and this deal or referendum are still the likeliest outcomes - thread 1/
Playing out the scenarios in turn, this PM or another goes back to Brussels and asks to renegotiate the backstop. Well the UK has been resisting the backstop for over 12 months now, so the chances of success on this look rather low 2/
A conservative leadership contest, and a new PM. Likely to be at the no-deal end of the political spectrum given the membership, but this just sets up a Parliament v new leader battle, and I doubt the new leader wins - because they don't have a mandate 3/
General election? First you need an A50 extension, but secondly there's little sign of the polls meaning a terribly different Parliament to this time. And Labour is going to campaign on anything but Brexit - probably successfully. Not a good option for tories 4/
New Conservative leader and managed no-deal. But managed no-deal means there have to be deals, and we're back to a negotiation the EU doesn't particularly want to have, we don't have the time for, and Parliament may not support 5/
A softer Brexit through the Political Declaration? But this PM doesn't want that, and no new conservative leader is likely to either. Labour doesn't help as their unicorn Brexit is pure fantasy. So tricky to see how we get there without u-turns 6/
The various longer-shot options like national unity government, commissions of inquiry, the PM finally being honest about the choices we face - there doesn't really seem to be the appetite for anything like this 7/
This is the backdrop to Parly support for a referendum gaining ground. Not straightforward (A50 extension), question (assumed PM deal v remain), most importantly currently lacks a good narrative to public about why it is happening 8/
I think a lot more MPs would be more sympathetic to a referendum if it didn't look like telling the people they made a mistake first time so could they reconsider. People's Vote folk will tell me I'm wrong here, in mass, but don't shoot the messenger 9/
The same incidentally applies to Parliament just withdrawing notification of A50. MPs genuinely think the vote of 2016 must be honoured. However many times the ultras accuse them otherwise 10/
And if all of this fails where does this leave us? Some say no deal as the default, but I would argue it is the PM's unloved and unlovely deal. Perhaps with some minor tweaks to the Political Declaration (@StevePeers has suggested some) 11/
Also perhaps with some further UK government commitments to Northern Ireland. Maybe some commitments as to the conduct of the next stage, the PM also offers to resign once passed? You could see the numbers for this 12/
We are in the realms of a week being a long time in politics, and the first rule being able to count. Perhaps also that your opponents are in front of you, your enemies behind. Oh, and I don't see actual party splits, the EU has always split the parties 13/ end
