Alarm is growing over a possible major Russian escalation in Ukraine.
Key signs:
1. Russian military buildup in border zone
2. Russian naval aggression in Black Sea
3. Russian banks advised to prepare for cut-off
4. Kremlin media cranking up anti-Ukraine hysteria
Why now?
Key signs:
1. Russian military buildup in border zone
2. Russian naval aggression in Black Sea
3. Russian banks advised to prepare for cut-off
4. Kremlin media cranking up anti-Ukraine hysteria
Why now?
There are a number of factors which could serve to convince Putin that now is an opportune moment to launch a large-scale Ukraine offensive:
Domestically, Putin's approval rating has plummeted to pre-Crimea levels amid unrest over a major pension age hike. A foreign policy adventure might appear the best solution.
Internationally, many of the major Western powers are currently distracted.
US: Trump-Russia investigation
UK: Brexit
France: yellow vest protests
US: Trump-Russia investigation
UK: Brexit
France: yellow vest protests
In Ukraine, Russia has virtually no hope of a favorable outcome from the spring 2019 presidential election, which is likely to further cement Ukraine's historic westwards pivot and turn away from the Kremlin orbit
Crucially, on 15 December Ukraine is scheduled to establish an independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church. This would be a massive blow to Russian influence in the country. Many compare it to the Soviet collapse in terms of Russian retreat. Unless Russia acts now, it could be too late
At this stage, talk of a major escalation is merely speculation - but the current environment suggests that it warrants serious international attention
