Thread by @Biz_Ukraine_Mag

THREAD: The Kremlin continues to repeat predictions of a forthcoming Ukrainian “provocation”. Many observers in Kyiv and elsewhere fear this may be part of Russian efforts to justify an escalation in Putin’s Ukraine War.

rferl.org/a/russia-repea…

In addition to the Kremlin’s frequent recent references to an allegedly imminent Ukrainian provocation, there are a number of other factors fueling fears of a coming Russian escalation.

Russia has significantly reinforced its military forces around Ukraine in recent weeks, including large concentrations of tanks on the border with eastern Ukraine and fighter jets in Crimea

The Kremlin media has recently ratcheted up the anti-Ukrainian rhetoric to levels not seen since 2014. Just last week, Foreign Minister Lavrov himself referred to Ukrainians as “Nazis” in what was an ominous indication of an escalation in the information war against Ukraine.

Russia has not faced any significant costs for the naval attack and seizure of Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea on 25 November. This is an open invitation to Vladimir Putin to escalate further.

The international environment could hardly be more favorable for a Russian escalation in Ukraine:

- America is in chaos over Trump’s Syria withdrawal

- UK is preoccupied with Brexit

- France is in the midst of yellow vest crisis

- Germany is focused on Merkel succession

Russia’s position in Ukraine is desperate enough for the Kremlin to consider drastic options:

- Recent creation of an independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church is a huge blow to Russian imperial ambitions

- Moscow has no realistic prospects of success in Ukraine’s 2019 elections

With Putin’s domestic approval rating plummeting to pre-Crimea lows, a short victorious war in Ukraine may appear particularly appealing.

This makes it a particularly tense holiday season for Ukraine.