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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
And this is the thing. Say the PM wins tonight, she still doesn't get changes to the Withdrawal Agreement, so we face political crisis in January. Brought on her by her leadership.
Alternate scenario, PM loses, the crisis is delayed and happens under another Prime Minister. But same crisis unless / until either the current or next PM is prepared to be honest about the choices the UK faces. Davis unicorns are similar to May unicorns.
Same sort of theme...
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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A modest step forward by those MPs supporting a 'Norway' Brexit - they have a better name than Norway+, we now have Common Market 2.0, also breaking the unwritten Brexit rule that all proposals must be +++ d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/stephenkinnock…
There's not much new here, but mention of our freedom to set agriculture rules doesn't sit well with commitments on the Irish border unless assuming Northern Ireland does not in fact have that freedom, and Irish Sea checks
Biggest problem for EEA supporters remains the opposition of both the Labour leadership and the referendum campaigners. Although a majority of MPs could probably live with an EEA solution it is hard to see us getting there
Read 3 tweets
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Meanwhile here are the "30 truths about leaving on WTO terms". globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl… I make it that 7 are true, 8 partly true.
Here's the fact checking for claims 1-13...
14-30. Statements about the future are inherently debatable, so you simply can't say "there will be no roaming charges" is a fact. It is a possibility.
Read 3 tweets
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Hopeless. One of the EU's perennial complaints about Brexit negotiations is that they've been expected to play the role of both sides as the UK side has never really known what we wanted. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
The EU will probably be able to make minor changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and perhaps more significant ones to the Political Declaration, but they expect these to be the final ones to get a deal over the line in Parliament. The PM doesn't know what these are.
There is no way the EU will agree to this, any negotiating partner will agree to this, and the very fact the PM is floating the idea will have Brussels in continuing disbelief at the PM's lack of understanding of negotiations. thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Migrants crossing Channel: not an actual crisis, but potentially a policy crisis for UK Gov. Or is it another lever for May’s Brexit deal? Thread 1/
A few hundred people have been caught trying to reach Kent coast from France in last few weeks. Mostly Syrians & Iraqis it seems. theguardian.com/global/2018/de… 2/
People in this situation usually claim asylum ASAP. It takes a total of couple of days of Home Office staff time for each individual’s paperwork, interview & decision. 3/
Read 16 tweets
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NEW: Bittersweet for PM from DUP. Nigel Dodds tells me party won’t for now back parliamentary no confidence vote Labour is floating for next week.

BUT insists that legally binding changes re backstop must mean actual changes to the 600 page Withdrawal Agreement not an “addendum”
My take - is she has till January to deliver changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and backstop that seem to be impossible both for EU27 but also the European Parliament and in particular Dublin...
DUPs Nigel Dodds tells me that backing a full parliamentary No confidence motion (being pondered by Opposition) is ”illogical” while the PM is promising to make legally binding changes to the backstop... but then says those changes must include actual changes to the WA text..
Read 3 tweets
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After the PMs phone call with the Taoiseach, Irish DPM and Foreign Minister @simoncoveney has just said in Brussels “we are saying the deal that is there, the deal between UK and EU isn’t going to change, particularly the legal language of the Withdrawal treaty”.
“Particularly” leaves open the opportunity for a tweak to the non-legally binding political declaration, I would say. Maybe some sort of side letter - as was case with Gibraltar. But Ireland firm, as I said last night there’ll be no changes to Withdrawal Agreement & so backstop
Thread from last night:
Read 13 tweets
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The particularly nasty thing about UKGov’s drive blame the EU27 should time run out with no withdrawal agreement in place is not even that it’s untrue (which it is).

It’s that UKGov can at least attempt to extend the time by asking for an extension, but chooses not to do so.1/
It’s well known that Art50 allows for an extension, but EU27 cannot impose one unilaterally. It requires the unanimous agreement of the EU27 and the UK. 2/
There’ve been some hints that EU27 would be open to an extension to allow for democratic processes to be completed, but those hints were really about a situation where election or referendum is called later in the process and the time is needed to complete them. 3/
Read 13 tweets
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PM told Cabinet that there would be a “robust response” to the Lords defeat on a meaningful vote last night ... so one presumes the suggestions that the Whips will delay the Commons vote/ping pong till Autumn for fear of losing, are not correct.
Opposition calculate that the big Commons votes on the Lords amendments come in the last week of May - so a “robust response” means PArliamentary fireworks then
Interestingly few people are considering this: IF a deal is done, then you don’t actually need a Withdrawal Bill until the Transition is over in late 2020 - all the same rules apply, and could include small changes in the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill instead....
Read 6 tweets
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1/ The Withdrawal Agreement or the risk of there being no Withdrawal Agreement should be subject to a final say for all by the Autumn of 2018
2/ While the Government considers that the referendum has given it a mandate to leave the EU, the terms of departure in 2016, 2017 and as of today were and are not certain.
3/ The European Parliament will be able to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement and presumably there is always a risk it may not vote in favour of it.
Read 29 tweets

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