Thread by @SimonFRCox

Migrants crossing Channel: not an actual crisis, but potentially a policy crisis for UK Gov. Or is it another lever for May’s Brexit deal? Thread 1/

A few hundred people have been caught trying to reach Kent coast from France in last few weeks. Mostly Syrians & Iraqis it seems. theguardian.com/global/2018/de… 2/

People in this situation usually claim asylum ASAP. It takes a total of couple of days of Home Office staff time for each individual’s paperwork, interview & decision. 3/

When HO wants to, it can make a decision within a week (security checks might add some time). A few hundred people is no problem for a system genuinely trying to make quick legal decisions. 4/

So why the fuss? It’s because these people *are refugees*! So officials find it hard to justify saying no. But many senior officials - and Mrs May - hate to see people getting asylum. And they are terrified of “new routes”.

Even though the numbers are TINY. 5/

So the usual dramatic operation has been rolled out. Ministers recalled. Front page headlines. Immigration Service Union blaming their opposite numbers in France.

Because 200 people claimed asylum. 6/

Javid has 4 options:
- do nothing extra
- use the Navy
- ask the French to obstruct
- help people in France
7/

Under EU “Dublin Regulation”, UK can send asylum-seekers back to France, unless they’re under 18, or qualify to join family in UK.

Many *do* qualify - UK Gov has been tying them in red tape to keep them in France. 8/

But many could be sent back to France.

It’s striking that Home Office doesn’t tell public “people who qualify for asylum will be allowed to stay, people who don’t will be sent to France or to their own country”.

Does Gov want people ignorant & scared. Things out of control? 9/

UK Naval boats have been called for. But the boats would have to take the migrants on board - putting them legally in jurisdiction of UK Gov & courts - what Gov is trying to avoid!

(See Hirsch v Italy case in ECHR) 11/

Could France “help”? Sure - France could spend more money patrolling beaches. (Though that often just pushes smuggling charges up, it does t cut smuggling). But Gilets Jaunes don’t want their taxes spent on that... 12/

UK has another option. Cut the red-tape & obstruction that’s stopping refugees in France being reunited with families in UK. Legal routes would reduce demand for sea-crossing. 13/

This would require Ministers committed to ending the “do whatever you can to get numbers down” mindset. A radical change of attitude - and dismissals - at top of immigration department. 14/

It won’t happen. This Tory Government has no new ideas on migration. So they will keep saying no. And boats will keep coming. 15/

But this “crisis” can still help May sell her Brexit deal. Withdrawal Agreement would keep UK in Dublin Regulation til end of 2020. At least some can be sent to France. 16/

A No Deal Brexit would mean - from 30 Mar 2019, France would have no legal obligation to readmit asylum-seekers. And every incentive to ignore boats leaving France. 17/17