Thread by @paulkrugman

I'm trying not to do straight political punditry on the shutdown, because I don't know anything that any observant reader doesn't. But here's what strikes me: the thing with the wall isn't just cynical, it appears to be politically obtuse 1/

Obviously the wall serves no policy purpose, it's just an attempt to rile white people up over the imaginary threat from brown people. But here's the thing: Republicans have been trying that trick repeatedly, and it keeps not working 2/

It didn't work in the 2017 VA governor's race, which the GOP tried to make all about MS-13. A lot of pundits assumed this would work; they lost by 10 points 3/

It didn't work in the midterms, which Trump tried to make all about the caravan -- with the aid of media that once again let themselves be used. Yet the result was an epic defeat 4/

You might say that it worked in 2016. But how well did it work, really? How much of what happened then was the result of Comey's malfeasance and the media's obsessive focus on the email non-scandal? 5/

Add in that public opinion has moved distinctly in a pro-immigration direction, and that anything Trump touches is tainted in the eyes of many voters 6/ news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immi…

So the implicit dialogue now looks like this:

Rs: Please fall for our cynical use of immigration for race-baiting
Voters: No
Rs: But we're race-baiting even harder now
Voters: Still no
Rs: But we've amped up the obvious cynicism. Won't you oblige us now? 7/

OK, @ThePlumLineGS has one answer: it's now defensive, about keeping up the appearance of taking action, and thereby holding on to the Trumpist rump 8/ washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…