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One reason a 29/3 no deal is more likely than most commentators acknowledge (I'd now say 45% likely) is that when push comes to shove, most Conservative anti-no dealers are bluffing & most pro-no dealers are not.+
Anti-no dealers (ANDs) may resign from the Cabinet but fewer than 5 AND MPs will resign the whip & not even all of those would vote for a General Election. They'll never have the mass, the donors or the activists to form the core of a new party.+
By contrast, pro-no dealers (PNDs) are not bluffing. 20-50 would be willing to resign the whip & form a new party if Brexit is cancelled, & they would take most Conservative donors plus 40% of the activists. They cld credibly form a new party that might replace the Conservatives.
