Many people still seem to imagine a "No Deal" Sovereign Brexit is unlikely. But what is the likelihood of any of the alternatives? Any deal requires the backstop. No deal can pass the Commons with the backstop. So a deal is only possible if EU gives up backstop. V unlikely now.+
+So if a deal can't happen, a "No Deal" Sovereign Brexit can only be avoided if Brexit is cancelled. How likely is that, given cancellation means either the Conservative Party has ended (if it does it) or Labour wins a GE (not likely but not impossible) & then cancels (unlikely).
Labour would need a solid majority to cancel Brexit against pro-democracy Labour rebels. A solid majority wld mean Corbyn cld implement his programme & blame May for any no deal disruption. What advantage wld there be to him in cancelling?+
The only realistic scenario in which No Deal doesn't happen is if May, perhaps backed by Chukaites, chooses to induce a permanent schism in the Conservative Party by withdrawing Art 50 or (even worse) some fake "2nd referendum".
(FWIW I actually think it is quite likely she'll try this - perhaps 75% likelihood she tries, 40% likelihood she succeeds.)
