Thread by @Usherwood

Basic message of last night is that we're still in a situation where no-one is able to force a way through, but plenty of people can block, so there's no incentive to give ground

So blocked we will stay

1/

For that to change, we need a disruption to the situation.

2/

Internally, that would mean someone (actually, quite a lot of people) giving up their fight and mucking in with someone else's fight.

But when everyone looks so weak, why should you be the one to fold?

3/

Externally, you need circumstances to change.

The obvious one is time

4/

A rapidly-running-down clock might make people re-evaluate their actions, dependent upon their risk aversion (what happens if I don't get my way?)

This is the heart of the May strategy

5/

The other external disrupter would be a change on what's acceptable to others (ie the EU). Very hard to see how this occurs, but maybe the profundity of the current blockage makes a more eloquent case than May did.

Not one to count on

6/

So the next weeks are likely to be more of the same: everyone unhappy with the situation, but no one able to change it to their satisfaction

7/

And as the time factor closes in, the chances that a miscalculation in the game of chicken is made will increase, leading to no-deal by accident.

8/

in sum: this is likely to get worse before it gets better

/end