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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Ehhh... the drop-outs, per the @smotus spreadsheet, are Patrick (a "real" candidate, but don't think he was a top-tier contender), Cuomo (who some in the NYC press still think could run), O'Malley, Avenatti and Steyer? That's a pretty weak group.
Gillibrand's an interesting case because she's someone you might expect *not* to run. On the one hand, she has a pretty bright future in the party and is a plausible nominee in e.g. 2024 or 2028. On the other hand, the invisible/pre-primary hadn't gone especially well for her…
…in part because of the dumb Franken narrative, and she was polling at 1-2%. Traditionally, that might translate into building one's reputation as a senator and waiting until the next cycle for a POTUS run, and maybe getting on a VP shortlist. Instead, she declared, and quickly.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This, also. Frankly, I'm not sure whether Howard Schultz or Pete Buttigieg is more likely to become president. I'd probably say Buttigieg if pressed. And at least he's held public office before and isn't too chickenshit to run in a party's primary.
At the risk of being hypocritical—we'll have a couple of articles on him this week—what's the journalistic case for providing heavy coverage of Schultz? He's not remotely likely to win. He's not especially well-known or popular. And he doesn't really have any interesting ideas.
Not only are Schultz's ideas unoriginal, but they already tend to receive more coverage than they "should" based on their salience with the general population, because they're the sorts of ideas held disproportionately often by rich and powerful people.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing we discussed on the pod this week is what role the media plays in deeming candidates to be viable, or not. For instance, how much coverage should we (the media) be giving to the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a town of 100,000 people, if he decides to run for president?
It's a tough question. You could in theory look at stuff like polling to determine how much to cover a candidate, but that's sort of a catch-22: a candidate usually won't register in polls until and unless he/she gets some media coverage.
As a related aside, part of what IMO comes across poorly about Beto's soul-searching/Hamlet act is that his credentials are a little light. If you think you have a case for being president despite that fairly limited experience, get in there and hustle for it.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Part of the thing I think people are screwing up about Schultz is that "let's slash entitlement programs to balance budgets" really is a fiscally *conservative* position in the context of 2019/2020. It's not only (way) to the right of the Democrats, it's to the right of Trump!
That stands in contract to someone like Bloomberg, who, as he's evolved, has both de-emphasized economic issues (relative to social issues) and whose views on economic policy have moved from conservative to fairly moderate.
People who have Schultz's views on fiscal policy but (also like Schultz) liberal views on e.g. gun control or abortion or immigration were, generally speaking, more likely to vote for *Trump* than Clinton in 2016. Will have more on that later this week.
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