Thread by @swardley

X : What you're talking about is impossible.
Me : In general, time describes the passage of impossible to possible whether in science, engineering or in politics. What you probably mean is you don't have the time and not that this is "impossible". It rarely is.

X : But these ideas of conversational programming are just science fiction.
Me : No, they're not. They are already happening today - - they are just primitive compared to tomorrow's versions. They will improve and this world is almost inevitable.

... if you want me to cook your noodle, this world of conversational programming will combine with an inevitable world of SpimeScript - blog.gardeviance.org/2012/02/in-sea… - you will say want you to want and a network of things will create it for you. It is not magic, it is just progress.

X : Spime script?
Me : Yes, the decision of what should be physical and what should be digital is best left to a compiler.
X : That's impossible.
Me : No. As I said at Euro Foo 2006 it just requires time. Look, conversational programming will evolve out of serverless ...

... SpimeScript will evolve out of industrialisation of printed electronics and 3D printing. Eventually both conversational programming and SpimeScript will combine. Some time around 2035. The world will become very different indeed over the next 15-20 years.

X : By 2035 a replicator I can talk to will be common?
Me : No, that's when the combination of conversational programming with the emerging SpimeScript will kick off. It'll take 30-50 years to evolve to the point of industrialisation itself, and another 10-15 years to spread ...

... during that evolution (the 30-50 years), you will see various products which combine SpimeScript and Conversational Programming but it won't be a commonplace commodity. That takes time.

... there is some evidence that the process of evolution has accelerated to 20-30 years but not enough to clearly state that, so I tend to keep with 30-50 years at this moment.

X : So, a replicator I can speak to and will build what I need will be commonplace and taken for granted by 2100?
Me : Oh, yes.
X : Can we make it go faster?
Me : Yes, you need to speed up communication mechanisms and information flow in society.
X : How?
Me : No idea.

X : Has it happened in the past?
Me : Yes ... printing press, postage stamp, telephone, internet ... lots of examples.
X : So, can't you say what the next one will be?
Me : That's impossible.
X : Ah, got you. I thought you said that this was a matter of time?

Me : It is. I cannot predict what successful change will appear in the uncharted space that will change communication mechanisms until it has happened. We just have to wait i.e. add time. I cannot predict that future.
X : But you're predicting the future with your maps!

Me : Not quite. I'm anticipating using common repeated patterns that can be anticipated. The evolution of an act, the peace / war / wonder cycle and componentisation. There are 30 of these patterns that I can use ...

... however, there are many things on the map you cannot anticipate. You cannot know all the things that will appear in the uncharted space and you cannot anticipate which component will appear to change communication mechanisms until it is happening.

... in other words, the future is more predictable than you think but it contains a vast amount which is highly unpredictable.

X : I don't see the point of mapping it then.
Me : Maps are a guide to the landscape not a crystal ball.
X : But this is so far in the future, why would you bother?
Me : Governments have to think long term. It also helps if you're writing science fiction. Ask @VirtualTal

... but it also helps you identify those events and components which slow down progress - the barriers, the cause of inertia etc.
X : Such as?
Me : There are many. Three things which do a grand job of stopping progress are intellectual property rights, social inequality and war.

X : I thought war was the mother of invention?
Me : No. The act of planning / preparing / conditions of war are ... the actual war bit isn't. The ideal state seems to be continual total war without anyone actually being killed or things destroyed i.e. a strong societal purpose.