Thread by @KawasakiKR11

$TSLAQ journal club.

Let's debunk the stated "mission" of $TSLA.

TL;DL: HEVs/PHEVs are at least as green as BEVs, if not more so.

Let me show you why using a nice paper from ICCT (a pro-EV org) on life cycle assessment (LCA) on EV’s carbon footprint.
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theicct.org/sites/default/…

I came across this paper while writing a previous (overly long) thread on Elon’s carbon footprint. I linked to its summary previously.
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https://twitter.com/KawasakiKR11/status/1084579884767301632

It reviews many recent LCAs, and does its own using reasonable assumptions. Well-worth reading this 12 page paper. It’s written for regular ppl, so very easy to read.
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The figure below shows BEVs have lower carbon footprint even on dirty German grid. But the BEV in question is Nissan Leaf w/ 30kWh battery. Not exactly a fair comparison w/ its limited range (107 miles). “Fuel efficient” ICE car is 2017 Peugeot 208.
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What I did here is pretty simple. I just proportionally adjusted “fuel cycle” + “tailpipe” for ICE for gas saving measures (e.g. HEV), as well as “lithium battery” for BEV for higher battery capacity.
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I’m using EU average & France here, because they are similar to US average & greenest US grid, respectively. France is 90+% low carbon (nuclear, hydoro etc.), better than Washington State. CA is nowhere near that.
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energy.ca.gov/almanac/electr…
eia.gov/state/index.ph…

How do smallest battery Teslas look relative to ICE & Leaf?

You can already see Teslas are pretty close to efficient ICE cars on average EU grid, and not that much better even on French grid.
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How about HEVs?

The average fuel saving w/ current HEVs is about 30% (ave. of 20 HEVs: ~33%). Toyota achieves ~36% saving on average & ~40% on non-SUV/minivans.

On EU grid, Teslas are no better than HEVs. About the same w/ efficient ICE cars even on French grid.
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How about PHEVs?

Fortunately, the paper actually assesses not just BEVs, but also PHEVs. I could just cut & paste. They use Chevy Volt as a reference.

You can see that Leaf is similar to Volt, but Teslas get beaten by Volt rather easily.
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These results are utterly predictable, IF you actually read UCS reports & other LCAs. Most Tesla fans only look at headlines. Here is the original figure on PHEV from the paper. Grid getting cleaner in the future doesn't help, because batteries are made even before BEVs.
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In short, short-range BEVs & PHEVs are good everywhere. HEVs are as good as BEVs in most places, except for places w/ very low-carbon electricity (e.g. Norway, France, but “NOT” CA). W/ dirty grids (China, Japan, Germany, etc.), Teslas are much worse than ICE!
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So, why do so many ppl claim BEVs are much cleaner? Some can be, but only against non-hybrids. I partly blame EPA’s MPGe (equivalent), which is “pump to wheel”, thus completely ignores battery manufacturing AND electricity generation.
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My rule of thumb is to divide MPGe by multiple of 20kWh battery. 1.5 for for Leaf (30kWh), 3 for Model 3 MR, etc. Here is what you get:

Leaf: 75MPG
Volt: 77 MPG (55%EV + 45% gas)
Model 3 MR: 41 MPG
Model S: 20 MPG

Matches what we saw above pretty well.
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None of this takes cost into account. Currently, the cost of going from equivalent ICE to:

HEV: +$3K
PHEV: +$9K
BEV: +$15K

(HEV based on 20 HEVs. PHEV/BEV based on Kia Niro/Optima pricing)
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You pay 5~6x more for the same amount of CO2 reduction by going from PHEV to BEV, compared to going from ICE to HEV/PHEV. Talk about mis-allocation of resources.
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If you’re rich & are willing to pay for it, fine. But subsidy money can be spend far more efficiently by subsidizing more HEV/PHEV at lower cost. Something like $2.5K for HEVs & $5K on PHEVs will reduce 2X more CO2 per dollar than $7.5K on BEVs.
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None of this is new. Many others have made the same points & (fortunately) many countries are moving in that direction, w/ exception of US & China. In Europe, Japan, etc. HEVs/PHEVs are vastly outselling BEVs. (~5:1 in EU, ~80:1! in Japan).
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Having said that, let’s remember that there are many many much more cost effective ways to reduce CO2 than by subsidizing any of these cars, especially Teslas.

Not buying a new car is one of them.

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aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

Having home solar helps, IF you charge during the day & NOT during early evening. For Tesla, it came well after "the mission" was stated & was actually just a bail-out for Elon & his family.

Just look at the reviews on their solar business. You're better off going w/ others.
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Residential storage (Powerwall, etc.) is a wash at best, because of the emission from battery manufacturing.

This means Telsa's "mission" entirely depends on its failing home solar & tiny utility-scale business. i.e. It's not about the "mission".

20/fin
arstechnica.com/science/2018/1…

p.s.

lol. From the paper & render vs. reality.

Not even close.

https://twitter.com/Trumpery45/status/1042749821927415809

p.p.s.
Making batteries at GF1 won't make much difference. Most CO2 emission from battery manufacturing is from mining & refining (not done at GF1), not from assembly (done at GF1). GF2 will be better w/ easy access to hydro & nuclear.

And >120kWh Model S will be much worse.

TL; DR