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25 tweets,
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1/
Q: Does Tesla’s carbon saving make up for Elon’s flying habits?
A: Lol. Trick question. What carbon saving?
W/ the news that Elon bought another private jet, Dassault Falcon 8X, I just wondered how big Elon’s carbon footprint may be.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
Q: Does Tesla’s carbon saving make up for Elon’s flying habits?
A: Lol. Trick question. What carbon saving?
W/ the news that Elon bought another private jet, Dassault Falcon 8X, I just wondered how big Elon’s carbon footprint may be.
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/
Elon flies from Van Nuys to San Jose in a Gulfstream G650ER about once a week. ~500 nm round-trip. G650ER consumes “at least” 5.92 lb/nm of Jet A fuel. So min. fuel consumption is ~3,000lb. At 6.71 lb/gal, that’s about 450 gal.
Elon flies from Van Nuys to San Jose in a Gulfstream G650ER about once a week. ~500 nm round-trip. G650ER consumes “at least” 5.92 lb/nm of Jet A fuel. So min. fuel consumption is ~3,000lb. At 6.71 lb/gal, that’s about 450 gal.
3/
EIA says CO2 emission from burning 1 gal of Jet A is ~21.1lb, so that’s about 9,400lb or 4,270kg of CO2.
EIA says CO2 emission from burning 1 gal of Jet A is ~21.1lb, so that’s about 9,400lb or 4,270kg of CO2.
4/
If he flew in a smaller jet (e.g. Embraer Phenom 300, 2.33lb/nm), CO2 emission comes out to be about 3,700lb (1,680kg).
So the difference b/w G650ER vs. Phenom 300 is about 5,700lb (2,590kg).
If he flew in a smaller jet (e.g. Embraer Phenom 300, 2.33lb/nm), CO2 emission comes out to be about 3,700lb (1,680kg).
So the difference b/w G650ER vs. Phenom 300 is about 5,700lb (2,590kg).
5/
Just for fun, I also calculated CO2 emission for a round-trip from LA to Tesla HQ (700 miles round-trip). I used a Kei car (Suzuki Alto, the base of Cervo Mode, Celerio, Maruti Zen, etc.), just because.
I’m giving Elon a benefit of doubt by excluding trips to/from airports.
Just for fun, I also calculated CO2 emission for a round-trip from LA to Tesla HQ (700 miles round-trip). I used a Kei car (Suzuki Alto, the base of Cervo Mode, Celerio, Maruti Zen, etc.), just because.
I’m giving Elon a benefit of doubt by excluding trips to/from airports.
6/
JC08 fuel efficiency for Alto is 37km/l, which is 87 mpg. EPA mpg should come out to be ~55 mpg (based on numbers for Prius & Camry). 55 mpg is nice, because that’s close to the Prius number & a bit worse than many PHEVs.
JC08 fuel efficiency for Alto is 37km/l, which is 87 mpg. EPA mpg should come out to be ~55 mpg (based on numbers for Prius & Camry). 55 mpg is nice, because that’s close to the Prius number & a bit worse than many PHEVs.
7/
At 55mpg, an Alto should use 12.7gal of gas for this trip. EIA says CO2 emission from burning a gal of gas is 19.6lb. So that’s ~250lb (114kg) of CO2. Or 1/38th of G650 ER, 1/33th of Falcon 8X. The difference w/ G650ER & Alto is 9,150lb (4,156kg).
At 55mpg, an Alto should use 12.7gal of gas for this trip. EIA says CO2 emission from burning a gal of gas is 19.6lb. So that’s ~250lb (114kg) of CO2. Or 1/38th of G650 ER, 1/33th of Falcon 8X. The difference w/ G650ER & Alto is 9,150lb (4,156kg).
8/
Now, let’s get to how much CO2 emission a Tesla reduces.
For typical commute of 32 mile per day, you end up producing ~57lb (26kg) of CO2 each week. LCA says, compared to fuel-efficient cars like Alto and Prius, BEVs reduces CO2 emission by 10-20%.
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Now, let’s get to how much CO2 emission a Tesla reduces.
For typical commute of 32 mile per day, you end up producing ~57lb (26kg) of CO2 each week. LCA says, compared to fuel-efficient cars like Alto and Prius, BEVs reduces CO2 emission by 10-20%.
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
9/
So a Tesla reduces CO2 emission by ~8.6lb (3.8kg) each week over Alto/Prius. Given that Elon’s weekly commute results in 9,400lb (4,270kg) of CO2, that’s about CO2 reduction from more than 1,000 Teslas. The same from flying in Phenom 300 instead of G650ER is ~660 Teslas.
So a Tesla reduces CO2 emission by ~8.6lb (3.8kg) each week over Alto/Prius. Given that Elon’s weekly commute results in 9,400lb (4,270kg) of CO2, that’s about CO2 reduction from more than 1,000 Teslas. The same from flying in Phenom 300 instead of G650ER is ~660 Teslas.
10/
That’s best case scenario (i.e. Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, etc.)
Reality is much worse. Let’s list the reasons.
That’s best case scenario (i.e. Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, etc.)
Reality is much worse. Let’s list the reasons.
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The move from ICE to BEV shifts CO2 emission from burned fuel to battery production & electricity generation. If electricity is high-carbon, so are BEVs. That’s why BEVs in Germany aren’t any better than efficient ICE vehicles (i.e. small diesels).
theicct.org/publications/E…
The move from ICE to BEV shifts CO2 emission from burned fuel to battery production & electricity generation. If electricity is high-carbon, so are BEVs. That’s why BEVs in Germany aren’t any better than efficient ICE vehicles (i.e. small diesels).
theicct.org/publications/E…
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Compare efficient ICE cars vs. Germany above. That's just a diesel car, not HEV/PHEV.
Or you can read this.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Compare efficient ICE cars vs. Germany above. That's just a diesel car, not HEV/PHEV.
Or you can read this.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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If you read the ICCT report above carefully, you can tell it’s not a LCA & exaggerate benefits of BEVs somewhat. It uses low estimate for CO2 emission from battery manufacturing, and omits recycling etc.
If you read the ICCT report above carefully, you can tell it’s not a LCA & exaggerate benefits of BEVs somewhat. It uses low estimate for CO2 emission from battery manufacturing, and omits recycling etc.
14/
Even then, it states:
“Plug-in hybrid vehicles, when driven on electric power for most trips, have lifecycle emissions similar to battery electric vehicles.”
Recent full hybrids are similar; bit more fuel but less battery than PHEVs.
Even then, it states:
“Plug-in hybrid vehicles, when driven on electric power for most trips, have lifecycle emissions similar to battery electric vehicles.”
Recent full hybrids are similar; bit more fuel but less battery than PHEVs.
15/
If you think BEVs aren't much better than HEVs/PHEVs, consider this about Telsa; ¾ of cars Tesla sold so far are S/X, which uses 18650 cells. 18650 cells are made in Japan.
If you think BEVs aren't much better than HEVs/PHEVs, consider this about Telsa; ¾ of cars Tesla sold so far are S/X, which uses 18650 cells. 18650 cells are made in Japan.
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Now remember Fukushima? That was 2011. Nuclear reactors in Japan were mostly off during the life of S/X. Let’s look at how electricity is generated in Japan, compared to Germany.
eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
Now remember Fukushima? That was 2011. Nuclear reactors in Japan were mostly off during the life of S/X. Let’s look at how electricity is generated in Japan, compared to Germany.
eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
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Yikes.
Just imagine how carbon-heavy batteries made in Japan are.
BTW, the situation in China & S. Korea, two other countries where tons of batteries are made, aren’t much better. Nevada (i.e. GF1) is mostly natural gas, so it’s somewhat better.
Yikes.
Just imagine how carbon-heavy batteries made in Japan are.
BTW, the situation in China & S. Korea, two other countries where tons of batteries are made, aren’t much better. Nevada (i.e. GF1) is mostly natural gas, so it’s somewhat better.
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W/ such carbon-heavy batteries, Model S/X most likely has much bigger carbon footprint than Alto, Prius, Volt, etc.
This alone eliminate any chance Tesla’s carbon savings make up for Elon’s flying habits. There really aren’t any carbon savings in the first place.
W/ such carbon-heavy batteries, Model S/X most likely has much bigger carbon footprint than Alto, Prius, Volt, etc.
This alone eliminate any chance Tesla’s carbon savings make up for Elon’s flying habits. There really aren’t any carbon savings in the first place.
19/
I’ll just list other reasons anyway.
2) 10-20% CO2 reduction figure is for equivalent vehicles. S/X are NOT equivalent to Alto/Prius. You have to go up to something like Avalon hybrid for that. Driving a smaller car is a simple way to reduce CO2.
I’ll just list other reasons anyway.
2) 10-20% CO2 reduction figure is for equivalent vehicles. S/X are NOT equivalent to Alto/Prius. You have to go up to something like Avalon hybrid for that. Driving a smaller car is a simple way to reduce CO2.
20/
3) CO2 footprint of private jet above is the minimum. It should be 25-30% higher under normal conditions.
4) Is Tesla at industry-standard efficiency in manufacturing? LOL.
3) CO2 footprint of private jet above is the minimum. It should be 25-30% higher under normal conditions.
4) Is Tesla at industry-standard efficiency in manufacturing? LOL.
21/
5) high cost of repair → more likely to be totaled early.
6) frequent breakdowns → trips on a flatbeds.
5) high cost of repair → more likely to be totaled early.
6) frequent breakdowns → trips on a flatbeds.
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Shorter vehicle (or battery) life is important, because BEVs have high up-front carbon footprint. Under ideal conditions, it takes a couple of years to make up for it.
Shorter vehicle (or battery) life is important, because BEVs have high up-front carbon footprint. Under ideal conditions, it takes a couple of years to make up for it.
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In case of S/X, they may get close to a similar-sized ICE "IF" they last long enough, but no chance against kei cars or hybrids. No one w/ a semi-functional brain cell thinks Telsas will last longer than Toyotas. From Whatcar:
In case of S/X, they may get close to a similar-sized ICE "IF" they last long enough, but no chance against kei cars or hybrids. No one w/ a semi-functional brain cell thinks Telsas will last longer than Toyotas. From Whatcar:
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There are more (efficiency loss from cold, vampire drain, etc. etc.), but I think you get my points.
Teslas sold so far hasn’t really made much dent in CO2 emission, so they can't make up for Elon’s weekly commute that generate CO2 equivalent of 40 kei cars (or Prii).
There are more (efficiency loss from cold, vampire drain, etc. etc.), but I think you get my points.
Teslas sold so far hasn’t really made much dent in CO2 emission, so they can't make up for Elon’s weekly commute that generate CO2 equivalent of 40 kei cars (or Prii).
cont. below
