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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Streaming just third party content is like buying a smoker, the right wood and a nice brisket, but not actually doing any cooking. What's the point given wholesale transfer pricing power of the video owners? Hulu cost Disney $580M last fiscal year. cnbc.com/2019/01/18/dis…
In a 1st party content streaming biz, Disney will have up front CAC like NFLX. Having shareholders who understand the difference between 1) value creation and 2) current earnings in a subscription business is important. Some may be "in the wrong meeting." 25iq.com/2018/02/03/bus…
Here is a model run using one set of Netflix numbers based on some educated guesses about inputs into LTV like churn and customer acquisition cost. Disney faces similar mathematics. It is all about the assumptions, which change dynamically. 25iq.com/2018/02/10/bus…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Someone will occasionally write me to say a 25iq post is missing. My book amazon.com/Lessons-Entrep… is a fund raiser for the charity "No Kid Hungry." If the essays were available for free, no one would buy the book. The essays have also been professionally edited and rewritten.
My posts on Bill Gurley, google.com/amp/s/www.geek…, Marc Andreessen a16z.com/2014/07/21/a-d… and Chris Dixon a16z.com/2015/01/18/12-… are available in other places on the Internet and also in the book. 100% of any revenue I would get from the book goes to "No Kid Hungry."
There are over 300 posts on 25IQ on various topics that I wrote that many weekends in a row. An index of the posts is here: 25iq.com/featured-indiv… The posts are all free to read and there is no advertising. Writing the posts was penance for my luck in life, an idea I borrowed.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
A lot has been written about challenges facing journalism this week, but not so much about the business challenges. The formula an owner of a media outlet faces can be represented in a formula: abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the… Each variable in the formula can make or break the business.
Among the critical variables for a media business is "customer acquisition cost." The higher that cost is, the greater the risk that (1) customer churn can result in stranded capital and (2) the business runs out of cash since the CAC is paid up front and revenue often is later.
The cost of acquiring a customer varies based on many factors, but to keep math simple assume it is $100 *on average* for newspapers/mags with significant variability by sales channel. If you look at many industries you can start to guess what CAC is or will be for a new product.
Read 9 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Why not use the term "volatility" to describe volatility? Because without pretending risk is defined by volatility you can't pretend you can quantify all risk with volatility. Pretending is fun and some people will pay you to do it in this way! cnbc.com/2019/01/25/if-…
"While volatility is quantifiable and machinable – and can be an indicator or symptom of riskiness and even a specific form of risk – it falls far short as “the” definition of investment risk. [Investors] fear a possibility of permanent loss.” Howard Marks google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Fund managers fear volatility since that can cause customers to flee! But customers can also flee due to a permanent loss of capital or a strait line one way drop in value.

Volatility created by markets is what creates investing opportunity for a margin of safety investor.
Read 3 tweets

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Jamie Bartlett
@JamieJBartlett
I founded a research centre specialising in machine learning algorithms. I’m neither a Democrat nor a Republican. She’s completely right & I’m delighted a politician is actually talking about this as it’s going to become a huge issue.
(And this video - which was circulating last year - is a very visual illustration of how bias can be built in & automated in apparently ‘neutral’ machines).
How can maths be racist? Asks Ryan Saavedra. Automated bias is widely understood as a problem in machine learning, because algorithms make choices based on data - and what if the data input are biased? (See Cathy O’Neil, Sayifa Noble great work on this). 1/4
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Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF)
@internetfreedom
With the MeitY looking to overhaul the existing Intermediary Liability regime, let's look at what an intermediary is, where it comes from, and how content regulation will impact #FoS & #privacy.

Thread by @arpithadesai who volunteers at IFF to #ELI5 this complex issue! 1/11
@arpithadesai Who is an intermediary?

An intermediary is anyone who receives, stores or transmits an electronic record on behalf of someone. Includes your telecom provider, social media websites, e-commerce sites & search engines. Big, small and tiny.

[Nope, not the colony gossiper] 2/11
@arpithadesai Under the IT Act, 2000, intermediaries enjoy what is called 'safe harbour' protection where the intermediary acts a facilitator and does not play any part in creation/modification of the information.

But, why? Because they facilitate free speech of end users. 3/11
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Andrew Feinberg
@AndrewFeinberg
(Thread) @mattgaetz is making an inane argument about companies having to give up some First Amendment rights to avail themselves of Section 230 protections.

Section 230 was meant to fix a problem created by a 1995 court case, Stratton Oakmont v. Prodigy, in which the court 1/
found that Prodigy was liable for third party content because it became a publisher by moderating posts according to terms of service and filtering obscene language. This conflicted with a 1991 case, Cuddy v. CompuServe, which found CompuServe NOT liable for user content. 2/
Section 230 was written into the 1996 Telecom Act to overrule the Stratton Oakmont case. It reads: “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.” Notice 3/
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Steve Vladeck
@steve_vladeck
Last night's 5th Cir. ruling in Whole Women's Health (ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/1…) is another example of the phenomenon I tweeted about last week—conservative judges subordinating settled law to their own policy preferences, however compelling they may be.

A quick #thread on why:
1. The underlying dispute in the case is over a third-party subpoena issued by the plaintiffs (abortion providers) to the Texas Conference of Catholic Bishops (TCCB) as part of their challenge to #SB8. TCCB sought to quash the subpoena, and ultimately lost in the district court.
2. TCCB then sought appellate review of the denial of its motion to quash. Without reaching the merits of its claims that the subpoena violates the First Amendment and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, Judges Jones and Ho agreed, holding that the subpoena was overbroad...
Read 11 tweets
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Wolfie Christl
@WolfieChristl
Until 2015, Facebook shared detailed profile data of users and their friends with myriads of third-party apps, not only with shady political marketing firms.

I found examples of how major global IT firms encouraged their clients to systematically harvest personal info from FB:
Beside of the debate about having an API vs. having a closed Facebook data system:

- Which companies have gathered data from FB until 2015?
- Was it legal? (US/EU)
- Do they still have it?
- Can FB help us to find out which companies accessed data?
- What about the FB FTC case?
Apparently, it was easy to gather extensive profile data or even information about someone's friends when running a Facebook app until 2014/15.

See also e.g. @ibogost's piece: theatlantic.com/technology/arc…
Read 9 tweets
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Maurice Ross
@MauriceMichael
1. Facebook did nothing wrong legally or morally by selling the data it collects to advertisers. Privacy and data collection is not the issue. The issue is use of data by third parties to post misleading CONTENT targeted at certain demographics so as to influence elections.
2. Facebook's business model is sound and legal--collect data from users and target them with advertisements that fit their interests. But that should not absolve Facebook of its responsibility to monitor CONTENT posted by users and advertisers.
3. Facebook must not allow its data to be used by or on behalf of foreign governments (Russia, China, or others) to publish false information that targets certain demographic groups in a manner that supports one candidate over another and influences US elections.
Read 13 tweets

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