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A couple of points to keep in mind with this 'rule out no-deal' business
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Boringly, there are rules around this, both in law and in politics
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Most importantly, it must be remembered that the EU is essentially an organisation based on rules, as embodied in its founding treaties, so its commitment to these is both political and existential
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that matters because while the UK constitution (yes, there is one) is very flexible (basically Parliament can change rules with ease), the EU system isn't nearly so adaptable
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So, back to those rules
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The UK's withdrawal from the EU is bound up in several sets of rules: national, EU and international.
Each says different things about 'ruling out no-deal'
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Each says different things about 'ruling out no-deal'
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Nationally, Parliament can (yes, you guessed) make any decision it wants on this, because it's a sovereign body and can't be bound by previous decisions it has made
So that's easy
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So that's easy
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Internationally, the generally-agreed framework of treaty law says you're a member of an organisation until you're not, so you can change your mind about leaving right up until you leave. However, that's not 'ruling out no-deal'...
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because that implies still leaving, but on terms.
and terms requires other signatories to agree.
that's fine if your organisation has no specific rules on leaving, because you're just delaying leaving until the terms are settled.
but...
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and terms requires other signatories to agree.
that's fine if your organisation has no specific rules on leaving, because you're just delaying leaving until the terms are settled.
but...
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of course the EU has rules. Art.50 is that rule.
And here's the problem: under Art.50, the notification to leave starts the clock on a 2-yr period to leave, after which you leave without a deal, unless everyone agrees otherwise
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And here's the problem: under Art.50, the notification to leave starts the clock on a 2-yr period to leave, after which you leave without a deal, unless everyone agrees otherwise
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So just because UK and international rules allow the UK to say it'll rule out no-deal, the EU rules don't allow it (at least as a unilateral action)
Thus the UK will rely on the goodwill of the other member states of the EU to rule out a no-deal outcome
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Thus the UK will rely on the goodwill of the other member states of the EU to rule out a no-deal outcome
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Now, this is where you say something about no one wanting no-deal, German cars, etc, etc.
And that might well be true, but it doesn't change the legal situation: all 27 member states will have to give explicit approval of each or any extension of Art.50
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And that might well be true, but it doesn't change the legal situation: all 27 member states will have to give explicit approval of each or any extension of Art.50
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Given that no-deal is seen to hurt the UK much more than the EU, and that member states don't have Brexit high on their political agendas, it's not unreasonable to assume that despite the incentives to avoiding it, threatening no-deal might also look attractive
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You only need one state to withhold approval and extension doesn't happen.
As the Spain/Gibraltar thing at the time of signing showed, the temptation isn't that far below the surface
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As the Spain/Gibraltar thing at the time of signing showed, the temptation isn't that far below the surface
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This said, the expectation is generally that an extension now would be forthcoming, just because no one really needs no-deal on top of everything else happening, but that doesn't mean future extensions will happen automatically
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In sum: ruling out no-deal needs the support of the EU, so it's not just a decision for the UK
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