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Let’s discuss negotiating power. This point has come up again and again and again. Let me give you some examples (thread)
Michael Gove, 2016: “The day after we vote to leave we hold all the cards” huffingtonpost.co.uk/michael-gove/m…
John Redwood, 2016: “the UK holds most of the cards in any negotiation” johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/07/17/get…
The Times headline 2017:”May to EU: Give us a fair deal or you’ll be crushed” thetimes.co.uk/article/may-to…
And a bit more subdued but still similar in 2018 the Telegraph “We have a better hand than Remainers make out” telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
And Lord Stoddard: “We hold all the best cards” brexitcentral.com/hold-best-card…
What is the claim now? I have heard it in committee and in the press: the time limit gives us leverage. Only one question: why precisely?
The EU will get hurt by no deal, no doubt. But so will the UK. Time limits generally do not shift the balance of power, they just tend to put both sides more under pressure, but the one that was squeezed hard, will likely continue to be squeezed harder.
In trade negotiations it is usually the larger market that has the upper hand. It can promise access to more money, more consumers. Why exactly would all this be different if we leave without a deal?
