Thread by @sbmintelligence

Last Friday, @MBuhari suspended the Chief Justice of On Friday, 25 January, 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari suspended the Chief Justice of @SupremeCourtNg, Justice Walter #Onnoghen, pending the completion of his trial at @CCBNigeria's tribunal.

@MBuhari immediately swore in Justice Ibrahim Tanko Mohammed as the acting CJN.

In a swift reaction, @NigBarAssoc issued a statement unequivocally rejecting and condemning “this attempted coup against the Nigerian Judiciary” and fixed an emergency meeting for today.

@SPNigeria & and Speaker of @HouseNGR, both condemned @NGRPresident’s move.

It is worthy to note that to legally remove the CJN, the other 2 arms of govt, @AsoRock & @nassnigeria have to be in agreement on the issue, so a 2/3 majority is needed at @NGRSenate.

At this point, @MBuhari’s @OfficialAPCNg doesn't have the numbers needed in @NGRSenate.

@MBuhari’s move has also received wide condemnation by civil society groups and has been harshly criticised in print and social media as an excessive and illegal use of executive power and a play from his time as a military leader.

It is extremely rare for a CJN to be removed from office - it has only happened once – when Murtala Muhammad removed Chief Justice Teslim Elias in 1975, shortly after a military coup brought him to power.

The most important questions to ask in this situation are: what does #CFRN1999, which is the grundnorm of #Nigeria say about suspension of the CJN; who has the powers to suspend the CJN and a Judicial Officer in Nigeria; and was due process followed in this case?

An Order of the CCT directing @NGRPresident to suspend the CJN is unknown to the Constitution & can't be superior to #CFRN1999.

Consequently, the move by @MBuhari predicated on such a substantially and procedurally flawed Order is unconstitutional and illegal.

Same is antithetical to the basic tenets of democracy, rule of Law and greatly undermines the judiciary of #Nigeria.

Due process has not been complied with in the purported suspension of the CJN, which has made well-meaning Nigerians to question the motives of @MBuhari.

@MBuhari’s are political, and his action has had the effect of creating a constitutional crisis as he went against Section 292 of #CFRN1999 in undertaking this action, and admitted as much in his speech justifying the "suspension".

https://twitter.com/MBuhari/status/1088855145000173568

By this admission, he has inadvertently blown the rule of law out of the water, something we should not be surprised about given that on 28 August, 2018, in a speech to @NigBarAssoc no less, @MBuhari said that “rule of law must be subject to national interest”.

@MBuhari’s actions in standing the rule of law on its head will have effects both on Nigerian politics, and the economy, for a long time to come, and these effects will be worse if his actions are allowed to stand.

The most obvious effect on the economy is uncertainty.

Despite all our hubris, most international observers and investors saw the risk of some type of constitutional deadlock or crisis during #NigeriaDecides2019 as very low.

With @MBuhari’s move against #Onnoghen, that is no longer the case.

In the near term, there will be no immediate impact because we were already in wait and see mode, and #Nigeria, going by the declining numbers of the past 3 years, isn't a palatable investment destination.

When the dust settles post-election, @MBuhari’s actions would mean whoever is running #Nigeria will have a much harder task convincing anyone to bring their money into our economy because if investors can't rely on rue of law, they are less likely to invest in our economy.

It is clear to us that @MBuhari has discounted votes from the South-South in #NigeriaDecides2019, and the timing of the CJN’s removal may be to have a friendly face in place at @SupremeCourtNg should an Election Tribunal need to be established.

With @realDonaldTrump busy with a vocal opposition in Washington & @theresa_may knee deep in delivering an increasingly fractious #Brexit, it appears that there is little the Anglo-American powers will do much more than issue statements.

@EuropeUnion powers are dealing with internal issues while @_AfricanUnion is powerless to interfere.

At this point, @MBuhari believes that only the electorate here can determine his future.

Notwithstanding, it remains to be seen whether recent pronouncements on #NigeriaDecides2019 by @USEmbassyAbuja, @UKinNigeria, & @EUinNigeria will mean anything.

Threats of visa denials & other punitive measures to anyone who tampers with the election have been made.

It is clear that replacing the CJN a day before the electoral tribunal was to be constituted in what many agree is an illegal and unconstitutional manner falls squarely in the category of an attempt to tamper with the electoral process.

Post electoral litigation has always been an integral part of #Nigeria’s electoral process, as @MBuhari himself has pointed out in the past.

It remains to be seen if the international community will make good their words.

At this time we don't think an election postponement is likely because @MBuhari will be fairly comfortable with his chances at this point, but this could change.

With less than 3 weeks to go, it appears @MBuhari is moving the chess pieces to assure himself of victory.

This brings his response at #NgCandidates with @KadariaAhmed on what he'd do if he lost into sharper relief – @MBuhari doesn't believe there is a chance that he can lose #NigeriaDecides2019.

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