Thread by @sbmintelligence

2018 began with some trepidation as #Nigeria's economy failed to take off, and familiar sounds of discontent began to surface.

In the political space, questions mounted about whether the coalition that brought @MBuhari to power 3 years earlier would hold firm.

It didn't.

Meanwhile, the year, 2018, would go down as the year when @AsoRock's claims about having a lid on security issues were revealed to be mostly empty.

The year began with an escalation of #PastoralConflict, with tit-for-tat killings across 5 states, and a tepid reaction from @AsoRock.

This culminated in the unsightly scenario of one of #Nigeria's most prominent citizens asking his tribesmen to defend themselves.

Security challenges continued with #ISWAP turning the heat on @HQNigerianArmy, and raising questions about @MBuhari's claim to have "technically defeated" #BokoHaram.

Back to the economy, and #Nigeria is entering a harmattan of discontent as unions are calling for better wages, while the country has entered the opening stages of what will shape up to be a major fiscal crisis.

All this in a year when campaigns for #NigeriaDecides2019 began.

As #NigeriaDecides2019 come and go, it matters not who wins, the question about the fundamental structure of the Nigerian state will have to be answered at some point.

We fear that the the window in which these answers can be given in an orderly fashion is closing, and #Nigeria is heading almost blindly, into an uncertain future.

Our guest writer for this year's report is @Sir_AhmedRufai who writes about what Northern Nigeria will be like after #NigeriaDecides2019.

https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1073525798399864832

Our predictions for 2019:

#Nigeria will have an opposition party having the majority in @nassnigeria for the first time.

@AsoRock’s already strained revenue position will become totally untenable.

Debt service to revenue ratio will reach 80%.

We don’t expect the exchange rate to move significantly before the elections.

We expect a steep rise in the exchange rate by between 30% and 40%.

@AsoRock will try to keep a lid on the FX rate opening arbitrage windows akin to 2016 and leading to significant capital flight.

We expect the trend of poor budget performance to continue.

Key investments will unfortunately not be made.

Unpaid salaries will remain a clear and present reality.

We expect an inability to continue to fund some of the social intervention programmes.

#Nigeria will face another recession in 2019.

The political will to face the numerous security challenges and attempt to deal with them to finally arrive as #NigeriaDecides2019 approaches.

Various pockets of violence will be faced with renewed vigour as the elections come.

We expect more clashes with @imnig_org and one of these may be the spark that lights a larger tinder.

There will be a change of guard at the leadership of security agencies.

There will be a clamour for the current heads to face the “Dasuki Treatment”.

As #NigeriaDecides2019 draws nearer, the government of @MBuhari will increasingly resort to populist policies to shore up support.

We believe that a close result will be followed by allegations of fraud and irregularities.

While we think it that an elite consensus, and popular discontent favour @atiku, @MBuhari's control of the apparatus of state will be a factor, and we don't think that he will hesitate to use it, so at this point we think that #NigeriaDecides2019 is too close to call.

A disputed result is very likely for #NigeriaDecides2019, raising the prospect of pre- and post-election violence.

We believe that electoral violence in 2019 will be of a greater magnitude than in 2011.

We expect #PastoralConflict to intensify after #NigeriaDecides2019.

#ISWAP will launch an offensive when the security services get distracted by the elections.

@MBuhari might yield to pressure and contract a PMC to take the fight to #BokoHaram.

We expect an increase in IDPs over the course of the year.

We do not expect FDIs to storm back into the market in huge volumes as seen in previous years.

Due to the current debt expenditure to revenue ratios, @AsoRock will be cautious of borrowing costs.

Companies will continue to take the option of Rights Issuance.

We expect that certain banks will either become acquisition candidates or require further @cenbank intervention.

@AsoRock will find it hard to fund its capital budget.

We do not expect any big ticket deals for @AsoRock in 2019.

#China will further become involved in the few infrastructure deals that will be done

With fintech operators being required to comply with more @cenbank regulation, it will lead to increased costs, higher entry barriers and regulated pricing of the segment.

We believe that oil prices will stabilise around the $60 levels in 2019.

2019 will be a tough year due to declining oil revenues.

Unemployment will continue to rise, and unofficial figures will put unemployment at half the population by the end of 2019.

Continued unemployment will be seen in increased social unrest such as crime.

More policemen will begin to openly express dissatisfaction with the way @policeNG is being run.

More current and former policemen will also be involved in criminal activity.

Repeated failures to meet IGR targets, among others will lead to further delays in salaries and increase the agitation by workers, and the deterioration of #Nigeria’s public infrastructure.

#Nigeria will finally begin the painful but necessary cut in civil service numbers.

Regardless of who wins the 2019 elections, the unions will be back in the battlefield in H2.

The proposed #budget2019 has already failed.

Download the complete report (33 pages) - sbmintel.com/wp-content/upl…