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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Some thoughts on Twitter comments today on no-deal Brexit and tariffs

1. Averages don't say much.

The EU's average AGRICULTURAL non-preferential tariff is about 11%.

But for DAIRY, the average applied to imports = 36% while at least one is…

…189%.

The impact is uneven

1/3
2. A lot of focus is on UK tariffs on IMPORTS from the EU, and the impact on food prices.

Sure, the impact on retail prices is less than the tariff increase.

And yes, the UK could scrap import duties. But have the trade-offs been discussed? Does any party have a mandate?

2/3
3. The focus on UK IMPORT duties under a no-deal Brexit, fails to look at the impact on UK EXPORTS to the EU, and on supply chains where paperwork and non-tariff barriers also increase costs.

3/3
wto.org/english/res_e/…
And then there's this👇🏽

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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
This WTO news item contains a lot of general statements of concern and good intentions. But deep down are links to documents on possible outcomes. Most interesting is a brief statement on launching talks on e-commerce (next tweet)

1/3
wto.org/english/news_e…
This is the statement from 76 WTO members on launching WTO talks on e-commerce.

Will they achieve a consensus among WTO members to formally launch negotiations, or will they to do it among themselves?

Where are India, Indonesia?

2/3
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S… Screenshot of the main part of the statement
As usual the Swiss government hosted a meeting of trade ministers in Davos.

Here's the closing statement of the Swiss economy minister, who chaired wto.org/english/news_e…

And the list of participants wto.org/english/news_e…
Read 3 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Surprising that @Econs4FreeTrade and @OwenPaterson are still pushing this GATT Art 24 10-year grace period rubbish, this time in the Commons

Ladies and gentlemen, I present you for the umpteenth time, explanations from three different people about why this should stop

1/4
Here's @DmitryOpines on why it's "utter nonsens"

2/4
Here's my little thread on the 3 hurdles that it would face, with a link to a longer blog post explaining what GATT Article 24 says

3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Crunch time approaches (again) & the mythical 10-year grace period of an interim trade deal keeps rearing its head.

Here, let’s keep it as simple as possible.

Just 3 hurdles.

Or if you prefer, you can go straight to @DmitryOpines' colourful thread

1/7
The claim (false) — with "no deal" the UK can continue to trade with the EU on present terms for 10 years under an interim deal notified to the WTO.

Yes, GATT Art.24.5 has a 10-yr “reasonable length of time” for interim agreements

Note "agreement".

2/7
 wto.org/english/docs_e… Screenshot of GATT Article 24 paragraph 5
So, the first hurdle: the EU would have to agree.

In other words

1. There has to be a deal of some kind
2. The EU would almost certainly insist on a Withdrawal Agreement and backstop

If this is agreed, then no need for an interim agreement at all. But let's continue

3/7
Read 7 tweets

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