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Crunch time approaches (again) & the mythical 10-year grace period of an interim trade deal keeps rearing its head.
Here, let’s keep it as simple as possible.
Just 3 hurdles.
Or if you prefer, you can go straight to @DmitryOpines' colourful thread
1/7
Here, let’s keep it as simple as possible.
Just 3 hurdles.
Or if you prefer, you can go straight to @DmitryOpines' colourful thread
1/7
The claim (false) — with "no deal" the UK can continue to trade with the EU on present terms for 10 years under an interim deal notified to the WTO.
Yes, GATT Art.24.5 has a 10-yr “reasonable length of time” for interim agreements
Note "agreement".
2/7
wto.org/english/docs_e…
Yes, GATT Art.24.5 has a 10-yr “reasonable length of time” for interim agreements
Note "agreement".
2/7
wto.org/english/docs_e…
So, the first hurdle: the EU would have to agree.
In other words
1. There has to be a deal of some kind
2. The EU would almost certainly insist on a Withdrawal Agreement and backstop
If this is agreed, then no need for an interim agreement at all. But let's continue
3/7
In other words
1. There has to be a deal of some kind
2. The EU would almost certainly insist on a Withdrawal Agreement and backstop
If this is agreed, then no need for an interim agreement at all. But let's continue
3/7
Second hurdle: What is agreed with the EU cannot be (as some are still claiming) a one-page sheet.
The UK and EU have to agree on details and present a plan and timetable to the WTO's membership.
4/7
Source: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/myt…
The UK and EU have to agree on details and present a plan and timetable to the WTO's membership.
4/7
Source: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/myt…
Third hurdle: The WTO membership has a right to scrutinise the proposed interim agreement. If they don't think it will work, they can demand changes.
The UK and EU would have to accept the changes or scrap the interim agreement. GATT Art.24.7
5/7
wto.org/english/docs_e…
The UK and EU would have to accept the changes or scrap the interim agreement. GATT Art.24.7
5/7
wto.org/english/docs_e…
That's why no one has ever notified an interim deal to the WTO.
If the UK and EU can agree, it's simpler to continue with the present customs union (or whatever) until it's replaced. If they can't, there's no interim deal either.
6/7
Full explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/myt…
If the UK and EU can agree, it's simpler to continue with the present customs union (or whatever) until it's replaced. If they can't, there's no interim deal either.
6/7
Full explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/myt…
People who've got this wrong over the weekend include @TiceRichard @DCBMEP with many retweets
The full legal text👇🏽of GATT Article 24, with additional understandings and jurisprudence,
And please don't call it WTO Article 24. It doesn't exist.
7/7
wto.org/english/res_e/…
The full legal text👇🏽of GATT Article 24, with additional understandings and jurisprudence,
And please don't call it WTO Article 24. It doesn't exist.
7/7
wto.org/english/res_e/…
