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0/ As we approach the end of January the average daily $BTC funding rate on @BitMEXdotcom will have it’s lowest ever high on a monthly basis of 0.0192% (Dec was the previous low of 0.03%).
1/ This is notable as it we’re starting to very slowly see signs of @Bitmex's influence retreating which should lead to a healthier spot market. Jan will mark the lowest % increase in the $BTC insurance fund since January of ’18 (when it was at 2,720 BTC vs. 21,600 last).
2/ The insurance fund was + ~92.0% of the days going back to Dec ’17 adding on average 47.7 BTC per day. November which was the worst month on record for $BTC & was the best month on record for Bitmex adding ~4,866 BTC or ~34% to the insurance fund.
3/ While Bitmex is theoretically the “house” and should benefit on big + & - moves it’s clear the business does better in negative $BTC environments. Looking at the largest notional insurance fund, adds 65% came post negative BTC moves with an average / median of -4.6% / -6.0%.
4/ This compares to the days where the insurance fund actually lost BTC reserves the prior day was positive ~70% of the time with an average / median return of 1.2% / 2.3%.
5/ The wealth destruction on the market cannot be understated. The insurance fund alone added ~18,873 $BTC over the past 12 months. It's estimated that Bitmex's profit was an incremental 200,000 $BTC over that time period.
6/ For comparison newly generated $BTC via inflation over that time period was ~680,000 making Bitmex ~1/3 the size of the mining reward. We all know King @CryptoHayes is selling that directly into fiat.
7/ Add to this the crypto only exchanges that often denominate fees in $BTC that's significant selling pressure the mkt needs to absorb. We are seemingly approaching an inflection point given wealth destruction that this might not be as large of a headwind on a go forward basis.
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