All Americans should be pleased that the job market continues to grow:
Last 24 months of Obama: +5,132,000 (Feb. 2015 to Jan. 2017)
First 24 months of Trump: +4,801,000 (Feb. 2017 to Jan. 2019)
data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES…
#Job growth since 2008 (millions)
2008: -3.56
2009: -5.06
2010: +1.06
2011: +2.09
2012: +2.14
2013: +2.30
2014: +2.99
2015: +2.71
2016: +2.24
2017: +2.06
2018: +2.56
2019: +304 (K)
(U.S. Labor Dept./Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Why did the unemployment rate go up - after 304K jobs were added to the economy? Of course you're dying to know this, and that's where WWR's Paul Brandus comes in. The simple answer: the two data points - jobs created and the unemployment rate - come from two separate surveys /1
/2
For example: the government asks companies how many people they had on the payroll during the month. This is called the PAYROLL survey – and from that comes the number of jobs gained or lost. Last month that was +304,000
/3
But the government also has a sampling of households around the country and asks people if they have a job. This is called the HOUSEHOLD survey. And based on that – you get the actual unemployment rate, which last month rose to 4.0%
/4
When the HOUSEHOLD survey is conducted, folks are asked: Do you have a job? If yes, you're employed, of course. If you do NOT have a job, are you looking? If you're looking, you're counted as unemployed. If you don't have a job - but aren't looking - you're not counted
/5
So the HOUSEHOLD and PAYROLL surveys - which folks often confuse - can sometimes produce conflicting results, as they did in today's report (this will all be on the final exam)
/6
Since people cherry pick the data that suits their prefered, partisan narrative, here is what folks will say about today's jobs and unemployment reports:
Republicans: +304,000 jobs
Democrats: the unemployment rate rose to 4.0% (from 3.9%)
(Both sides are correct)
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