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0/ As we look at $BTC price performance January was the 6th consecutive negative monthly return (and 8 of the last 9); surpassing the previous record streak of ~5. 
1/ Looking at $BTC adjusted transaction volume January of ’19 saw the lowest average daily volume since April of ’17 at ~$1.3bn/day
2/ While no longer apples to oranges historically due to SegWit and batching $BTC daily transaction count actually looks healthier off ’18 numbers than transaction volume.
3/ The current difference between $BTC's “realized cap” vs. “market cap” is now a ~22.5% discount which is in the bottom 2.5% of observed periods back to 2011.
4/ The ’13-’15 bear market bottomed out at 404 days and a 43.4% discount between RC vs. MC which was a day after the bear market ended (1/15/15). A similar magnitude of discount here would put $BTC at ~$2490.25 (or 26% down from current levels).
5/ Notably $BTC realized cap was at a discount to market cap for 10 straight months from Jan-Oct of ’15 when the bear market had already bottomed. Feb is on track for the 3rd consecutive month this cycle where that relationship holds true (par is $4400 last)
6/ While the demand side of the $BTC equation continues to be a large question mark. The supply side has started to come into a clearer picture. Given the px drop $BTC daily inflation in dollar terms is as low as it’s been since July of ’17 and will be cut in half in <1.5 years.
7/ The less discussed supply including exchange profits (mainly Bitmex & @binance) are starting to wane as well. Jan looks like Bitmex’s least profitable month in over a year & Binance’s last Q in dollar terms was Binance’s lowest profit since its inaugural quarter ($47.0mn).
8/ However none of this addresses the demand side of the equation. As @MustStopMurad conceded 99% of people don't care about decentralization or self-sovereignty for decentralization or self-sovereignty sake. Need a catalyst to get people engaged in the asset class again.
9/ Don't think a broader macro correction with a flight to safety would be good for $BTC in today's environment despite the digital gold narrative...
