Thread by @nbashaw

~ Ten Podcasting Predictions ~
(I briefly worked at Gimlet but have no inside information, am just a curious observer)

Thread:

1) They'll make it easy for anyone to create audio ads using Anchor's technology and build targeting tools similar to Facebook

2) Advertisers will increasingly buy from Spotify, and move away from working directly with podcast creators

2b) This basically mirrors what happened with Facebook and web publishers

3) Spotify will pay podcast creators in a similar way that YouTube pays its creators

4) Spotify will funnel a lot of budget through Gimlet in a similar way that Netflix funnels a lot of budget through Ted Sarandos's content org

5) Gimlet will manage less in-house and work more with production companies (it's a great time to start a pineapple street style production company)

5b) This follows a similar trajectory to the movie industry, which began with studios controlling everything (actors and everyone were full-time employees) to a more modular industry structure

6) Gimlet Creative will become the touchpoint for all big brands advertising in audio (their work won't just appear in podcasts, but music and everything else in Spotify)

7) The indie podcasting world will become even more activist, will develop an open-source alternative to Anchor, and even more resistant to Big Podcasting

8) Netflix will look at acquiring Spotify and try to roll everything up in one mega-bundle

8b) This is tricky because it would be a huge acquisition and will only make Spotify more valuable if the strategy starts to show evidence of working

9) Google will sense the threat, and invest a bit more into making their podcasts app grow (good time to build an Anchor competitor that they can snatch up)

10) Apple, the sleeping giant, won't change much of anything

(Stakes are still way too small, and maniacal focus is built into their DNA)

Lastly, check out my soundcloud 🙃 substack.com

Bonus prediction (thank you @sarthakgh for inspiring it!)

11) Spotify's data will enable Gimlet to make incredibly smart acquisitions. Listener growth and retention are probably great leading indicators of long-term success.

Another postscript:

Spotify is basically conducting a grand A/B test. Is the future of podcasts going to look more like Netflix or YouTube?

Buying these two companies at the same time signals they think it might be both, or they're not sure which it will be.

One more:

If you’re a podcaster (or writer) that wants to make real money and serve your listeners with minimal platform fuckery, we at @SubstackInc are building something for you: niemanlab.org/2019/02/in-a-h…