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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
As ever your Brexit Saturday morning read comes from @tconnellyRTE - which I think captures well the sense of the search for a solution to the negotiating impasse that is simultaneously something and non something substantial - though couple of points to add...
On the existing models / UK is different argument, something for both EU and UK to think about. More detail from me in the next couple of weeks, but just on financial services there are very good reasons for finding a new way - as this letter hinted ft.com/content/716135…
But the big issue overshadowing this - how many Conservative MPs can never agree to any variant of the PMs deal as it will prevent a trade agreement with the US? More on this later...
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The dull stuff of trade negotiations - what do we want, what does the other side want - that is what you need in negotiations instead of slogans or draft text pasted from other agreements. Take it from two former negotiators...
Also why this article on a draft UK-EU trade agreement adds nothing. We can all copy and paste bits of trade agreements we like or don't, but what is it we actually want from a trade agreement? capx.co/heres-what-a-u…
And from the same author, more work of questionable quality...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Monday morning Brexit roundup - because it's getting harder to keep up with everything...

1/ UK and Switzerland to sign continuity trade agreement today reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
2/ The UK-Switzerland rollover doesn't maintain the exact same benefits, in particular due to the Swiss-EU relationship. Fortunately @CoppetainPU has done some of the analysis for us... tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/05/uk-…
3/ ERG Brexiteers continue to make the case for the Malthouse 'compromise' based on the usual dubious assertions (we can't kill the WTO Article 24 myth) brexitcentral.com/strong-reasons…
Read 9 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This May-Corbyn letter may be conciliatory in tone but is unchanged on substance and quite revealing as to the PM's approach to Brexit... starting with finding the alternative arrangements to the backstop, despite having failed to do so for 18 months...
Next paragraph is interesting "the political declaration cannot be legally binding and.... provides for a spectrum of outcomes". That is quite some admission because it renders much of the rest of the letter invalid. Note no substance on Parliamentary consultation
First bullet point is pure cake on having all access to frictionless trade without single market or customs union. The PM still doesn't realise this is undeliverable, and only offered as a framing device by the EU (and non-binding...)
Read 7 tweets

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) So what is the Labour #Brexit GE platform?

As far as we can make out we'd be voting for more negotiations (which the EU will not agree to) to get a better deal (which likely doesn't exist)

The entire Labour platform is based on promising a Brexit they cannot deliver
2) "Vote Labour even though our #Brexit platform depends on 27 other governments all doing what they've all said they absolutely won't do"

That's not a manifesto, it's just wishful thinking
3) but even if Labour's GE promises on Brexit were real, why should any Remainer support a GE?

The Tories have led Brexit but at least they are starting to say it may not happen. Corbyn's leadership team won't even consider the idea that Brexit could be stopped
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
1) Pres Juncker just said on #Brexit "Don't force me to speculate, let me do what I can" (original in French: "laissez moi faire")
2) There’s talk of a Juncker/Tusk letter by Monday setting out EU reassurances on the backstop. This is not 100% confirmed
3) But Presidents Juncker and Tusk cannot unilaterally change the text or meaning of the #Brexit deal. It has been signed off by the 27 EU leaders and they need to be onboard and to agree to any changes
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Nobody ought to be surprised by the ineptitude unfolding in British politics in respect of #Brexit. Brexit really just brings it centre stage - but it has been there all along for those who care to look...
2. Take the Iraq invasion. Our generals assured us that it was just a matter of keeping the peace and ti was our recent experience in Northern Ireland than made us the operational experts. That assessment proved to be... less than accurate. Some might say breathtakingly arrogant
3. We assumed that we could keep the peace by running a hearts and minds operation going out in soft skinned landrovers. It didn't take long for that idea to disintegrate and soon we were taking avoidable casualties and losing control of the situation.
Read 21 tweets
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Diarmuid MacShane
@macshaned
This is being laughed at a lot here on Twitter in the last couple of days >>> Blockchain may resolve Irish border Brexit problem: reuters.com/article/us-bri…
But Philip Hammond isn't the first or only person to propose blockchain as providing a possible solution to the border #BREXIT problem
I gave a work presentation back in March this year where #BREXIT was given as an illustration of one of every single problem that exists in the world at the moment that blockchain so fix >>> forbes.com/sites/stratfor…
Read 13 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. I am told I should welcome the efforts of @betterbrexit. I'm not impressed. It's too little, far too late and ill thought out. EEA might well be a large part of the solution but it is not a miracle solution and moving into it from the position of being an EU member is not easy
2. To maintain frictionless trade we would need a customs protocol to go with it along with a series of negotiated annexes which may take a number of years to complete. It's not as simple as just filling in an Efta application form.
3. EEA has often been described as an off the shelf solution (even by me) but it is only off the shelf insofar as it is an existing framework. It still needs to be beaten into shape and will have to take into account the concerns and red lines of Efta members.
Read 22 tweets
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Gergely Polner
@eurocrat
#Brexit White Paper is finally out

Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. The full U.K. solution to the Irish border will be rejected by the EU
2. A ‘common rulebook for goods’ - the EU could do two things: A) reject as cherry-picking parts of the single market or B) start discussing how much of this is doable under an FTA.
There’s a good chance it would be B, but it will have to be tweaked significantly
Read 5 tweets

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