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A Saturday morning UK trade and Brexit thread, to explain further why the next few weeks are more about chlorinated chicken than any interest in Ireland or trade, and why a clash of US interests may decide the UK's fate... 1/
Let's start with the Brexit options as unearthed yesterday by @RobDotHutton from 2015 - these include EEA (Norway) and FTA, while Labour has put forward a Customs Union. What do these mean for trade agreements? 2/
Well, EFTA countries like Norway have many trade agreements, which can includes tariff reductions and services access. Here they all are. They do not though have a trade agreement with the US 3/ efta.int/free-trade/fre…
What about Turkey, in a Customs Union with the EU? Harder given no control on tariffs, but they in fact also have trade agreements with other countries, as we see here. But they do not have a trade agreement with the US 4/ trade.gov.tr/free-trade-agr…
Both Turkey and Norway are full independent members of the WTO, and both were involved in negotiations for the Trade in Services Agreement, now gone quiet due to EU-US differences. 5/ ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/i…
The UK's priority for trade policy, as set by Liam Fox, is to liberalise global trade in services. As we have noted, both Norway and Turkey have been involved in such efforts. We do not need a no-deal Brexit to achieve this 6/ gov.uk/government/new…
So, conclusion so far, we can leave the EU, be part of the single market and / or customs union, and still have trade agreements and try to liberalise services. We just can't have a trade agreement with the US 7/
And who is also happy with that? The US Chamber of Commerce. Their Brexit priorities of September 2017 are "ambitious expectations for the future EU-UK economic partnership" and not a UK-US trade deal 8/ uschamber.com/report/priorit…
But not all corporate interests in the US have the same view. In particular agricultural companies have long been frustrated by the EU's approach to food safety. Maybe with some justification. For them the UK is an opportunity... 9/ huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/what-us-…
And these US agricultural export interests are prepared to pay Brexiteer MPs to put the case for a UK-US trade deal in the US 10/ theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
So far so normal, politics, trade, lobbyists, same old story. But what if the UK allows US agricultural products into our market. The redoubtable @pmdfoster had a great thread on the Ireland border yesterday, including... 11/
No currently available technology solution can prevent this kind of meat smuggling, they are all targeted at facilitating regular traders through customs. We are where we have always been on the question of a border 12/
Which then brings us to the Malthouse compromise, where the UK would put forward UK-EU trade agreement text based on the document "A Better Deal" - but what we find in there are demands straight from US agricultural interests like this 13/ 
Just in case this was not clear enough, here is Shanker Singham, author of "A Better Deal" providing evidence to the US Government that a weaker UK-EU relationship is good news for US farmers 14/
So what about the UK economy? According to economic analysis published in November new trade deals with the likes of the US make a negligible impact on GDP compared to the hit of only FTA relations with the EU 15/
So the Malthouse compromise is economically estimated to be much worse than the PM's deal (and that is likely, the magnitude questionable), if you put barriers up to your nearest and largest trade partner. And then we go back to Ireland via Switzerland.. 16/
The Swiss arrangement with the EU has actually allowed them to import US agricultural products under strict conditions. But the EU don't like that very much, and it may soon end. And of course Swiss-EU borders have checks... 17/ beefmagazine.com/mag/beef_swiss…
And those border checks are what the UK and EU have committed to avoid in Ireland, and now we have Members of the US Congress saying no UK-US trade deal if there's a hard border 18/ ft.com/content/79cdf2…
So, one set of US lobbyists want to see a UK-US trade deal which would require a hard border in Ireland, and another set say no trade deal if there is a hard border. What was that about taking back control of our own trade policy 19/
Meanwhile the Malthouse Compromise is promoted by the ERG / Brexiteer faction of the Conservative Party who appear to be putting US agricultural interests ahead of UK economic interests and the island of Ireland. And expect the EU to allow this! 20/
That then is the essential background to the next few weeks of Brexit, you can have Brexit and close relations with the EU, preserving as far as possible arrangements in Ireland, or full-Brexit, meaning putting the US agricultural lobby first. Take your pick... 21/ end
PS Yes I was an advocate of TTIP and still would be. I believe in lowering barriers to trade, and TTIP would have done that. Choosing between EU and US is not lowering barriers to trade.
Now go and enjoy the rugby or whatever your Saturday involves!
Now go and enjoy the rugby or whatever your Saturday involves!
