Thread by @SkidRowRadio_YT

THREAD: When the shit wants to get off the pot.

The centrists waking nightmare is currently the thought of actually having to endorse JC in important votes in the next few weeks, if his thus far winning strategy does result in May failing again. 1/

They don't want to vote w/ JC on any none PV resolution to #Brexit. 2 things can happen now as we get to the wire
1) May adopts JCs proposal, Labour backs the brexit deal, we're done. Brexit is solved & we can get on with a split & preparing left candidates to run against them 2/

2) May refuses to adopt JCs proposal and her same shit deal gets rejected again. Then a VoNC holds huge weight. The sabateurs skin crawls at the thought of voting for an election to happen that they'll be deselected in before it even begins. Lovely jubbly. 3/

If they stay now they're weakened either way. So they need to split b4 they're pushed, but trotting out old favourites like antisemitism hasn't had any impact on support for a break away party. Outside of their echo chamber, Labour voters just want a GE to get the Tories out. 4/

Of course, like the SDP before them, a split would not be to actually try & win seats in parliament, but purely to prevent a left wing Labour victory. The question is when are they more likely to hurt him? Before or after Brexit is resolved? I think before. 5/

Perhaps there is a 3rd outcome. If Mays deal falls again & she refuses to adopt JCs olive branch, maybe the capitalists will see a national gov as their final way of avoiding Corbyn dictate how #Brexit concludes. For that, both parties would need to split before brexit day. 6/

May is now reduced to begging for more time to 'get her deal thru' despite changing nothing in it.
First she lauded no-deal as better than a bad deal, then concocted the worst possible deal & seems desperate to get it thru to avoid no deal 7/
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

The red Tories cant blame a split on JCs brexit strategy.
1) actually got the meaningful vote to prevent May wavin us thru to vassel status.
2) demanded no deal be taken off table.
3) detailed a specific plan that the EU has ratified as the exact way to end this chaos. 8/

So they need a trigger. Surely Watson intended to stir up division? If JC got involved in their manufactured shit storms he'd be derailed from his so far faultless mission to split the Tories over brexit. In other circs he could intervene. But now it'd scramble his efforts. 9/

We're now in a situation where the party that splits first loses.
The centrists were triggered by JCs letter to May because that is the blinding light at the end of their tunnel. They've got to cause maximum damage before that resolution can materialise. 10/

If his 'heavenly' solution is the way to finally end the brexit stalemate, Corbyn is placed as the PM in waiting. The Tories would split & lose their majority and so a GE would need to be called & he goes into it on the back of an undeniable victory. 11/

In that scenario, a breakaway party cannot claim any sort of reason to exist. That is why they need to split before but since they've no robust reason to do that now either they need a trigger. Ever bigger mountains will be made out of ever smaller molehills. 12/

They are getting ever more despicable in their efforts to cause division & it is working. Socialists already frustrated with no immediately clear route to a proper #Lexit are finding the end of their tether is where CLPs are denied holding their MP to account. 13/

If the sabateurs have no way of legitimising a split at this crucial moment then the next best thing they can do is hack away at the left wing support for Labour by kicking up so many stinks everyone holds their nose & legs it. 14/

To quote @upsadaizy from this vital thread about evidence of agent provocateurs moving to bolster rationale for a split, this could all be a trap. If they draw JC into a turd tundra, they'll have a motive. If we turn away from Lab now ppl will suffer. 15/

https://twitter.com/upsadaizy/status/1094371092616044545?s=19