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Saw @EvanMcMullin talking with @CNN about third party candidates, and since I am avoiding grading exams, here's an amplification on the question of whether Howard Schultz will run: he can only help Trump, except under one circumstance. /1
For a third-party candidate to hurt Trump, the Democratic party's candidate would have to be so unacceptable, so off the wall, so horrifying, that a coalition of *most* Democrats and *enough* Republicans would join forces to push that candidate over 270. /2
The Republican base is not going to abandon Trump. He's almost a certain loser against any competent Democrat (important caveat, I know), but a third party candidate can *only* shear off votes from Dems, unless the Dem nominee is worse than Trump. And that's not gonna happen. /3
I mean, seriously, the Dems would have to nominate, like Farrakhan for Democrats to defect along with enough Republicans to create a path to 270. So the idea that Schultz could hurt *either* party makes no sense. In some either year, maybe, but not in 2020. /4
Especially since Schultz isn't really a "third party" candidate; he's a Democrat who doesn't want to run in a primary. Of all the years to avoid a third-party candidacy, this is the year. /5x
