Thread by @GamingInHolland

So what’s the current state of the debate wrt Remote Gaming Bill + Casino Reform Bill? Let’s recap.

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First up: Casino Reform Bill. Passage is still possible but at this point very unlikely. Right now, only possible majority seems...

...VVD+D66+CDA (will have to change their minds – unlikely, but not impossible on account of coalition agreemment) + SGP (really: sgp.nl/actueel/gokken…) + 50Plus (whom we haven’t heard from yet) = 39 votes (out of 75).

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Next: Remote Gaming Bill

At present, there are three sticking points:

1. Exclusion of illegal operators
2. Additional online and social media advertising restrictions
3. IP/DNS blocking of illegal operators’ websites

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Regarding point #1. Dekker made an important concession: all operators who “actively” targeted Dutch market will be (temporarily) excluded instead of only operators sanctioned by Dutch regulator. See also: gaminginholland.com/10577

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Regarding point 2. If necessary, lower regulation will be modified.

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Point 3. No concession possible: IP/DNS blocking was stripped from bill by Lower House. No way to bring it it back in current proposal.

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Will concession #1 be sufficient? Probably.

However…

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... it is not inconceivable that some of the more reluctant supporters of the bill may think that Dekker's concession did not go far enough...

...while Dekker may balk at the idea of excluding even more major international remote operators, because this would lead to only a very limited onboarding of current black market activity.

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Pretty sure that concession no. 2 will be sufficient.

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Point no. 3: No concession, but could be overlooked.

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But if Senate absolutely insists on IP/DNS blocking we need to go back to the Lower House. This process, however, can be expedited through a so-called “novelle,” i.e. revised bill that is passed quickly by Lower House in order to meet Senate objections to previous bill.

The new bill will normally be quickly voted on by the Senate.

Don’t be surprised if one of the more reluctant backers of the Remote Gaming Bill proposes such a move.

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So how will it end?

My current guess is that the Remote Gaming Bill will pass with support from VVD+D66+PVV+PvdA, for a total of 40 votes.

Additional support from CDA (12 votes) + GroenLinks (4 votes) may also be forthcoming.

However...

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… during last week’s debate, we witnessed some really unexpected developments that even took the government by surprise.

So it’s certainly not yet a done deal, even though the omens appear to be good.

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