,
9 tweets,
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First thought is that, at present, it doesn't change much at all.
MPs involved already voting away from LAB line on Brexit issues, so while freed of the Whip, they don't move that far
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MPs involved already voting away from LAB line on Brexit issues, so while freed of the Whip, they don't move that far
2/
Yes, May might be more able to work with TIG on building an ad hoc coalition to offset loss of DUP/ERG, but there's a limit with the small size
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However, things change, so what change might matter?
Most obviously, could TIG grow?
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Most obviously, could TIG grow?
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On today's evidence, hard to see that. You'd need quite a large number of extra MPs, ideally from various parties, so unless someone's got a game-plan for trickling out defections in the coming days, this might be a bit of dead letter
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In addition, you'd need a clearer (and a whipped) group line on Brexit.
Today wasn't framed as primarily a Brexit-related move, but it's going to be the first policy test for TIG
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Today wasn't framed as primarily a Brexit-related move, but it's going to be the first policy test for TIG
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Finally, you'd other Brexit factions in Commons to experience some disruption, to facilitate movement on policy (and so raise chances of cooperating with TIG).
Time might do some of that, but right now a lot of MPs are very dug in, so no holding of breaths
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Time might do some of that, but right now a lot of MPs are very dug in, so no holding of breaths
7/
As even in British politics these days, things might look v.different in a few days, but for now this isn't the big Brexit shock that unblocks Parliament
/end
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(and apologies for the hiatus in the middle of that: work beckoned...)
